Responsible Nanotechnology

Steady Work

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

It has taken biologists some 230 years to identify and describe three quarters of a million insects. If there are indeed at least thirty million, as [the Smithsonian Institute] estimates, then, working as they have in the past, insect taxonomists have ten thousand years of employment ahead of them.

— Richard Leakey

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

It has taken biologists some 230 years to identify and describe three quarters of a million insects. If there are indeed at least thirty million, as [the Smithsonian Institute] estimates, then, working as they have in the past, insect taxonomists have ten thousand years of employment ahead of them.

— Richard Leakey

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

It has taken biologists some 230 years to identify and describe three quarters of a million insects. If there are indeed at least thirty million, as [the Smithsonian Institute] estimates, then, working as they have in the past, insect taxonomists have ten thousand years of employment ahead of them.

— Richard Leakey

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

It has taken biologists some 230 years to identify and describe three quarters of a million insects. If there are indeed at least thirty million, as [the Smithsonian Institute] estimates, then, working as they have in the past, insect taxonomists have ten thousand years of employment ahead of them.

— Richard Leakey

Naming a President

Thought for the day:

• In 1860, would voters in the United States have elected a President with an Irish last name? Almost certainly not.


• In 1900, would voters in the United States have elected a President with an Italian last name? Almost certainly not.


• In 1940, would voters in the United States have elected a President with a Jewish last name? Almost certainly not.


• In 1980, would voters in the United States have elected a President with an African last name? Almost certainly not.


• In 2008, would voters in the United States elect a President with an Arabic last name? Almost certainly not.

Does this represent progress, or an embarrassing backwardness?

Mike Treder

CRN on the Discovery Channel!

Do you get the Discovery Channel? If so, tune in Monday night -- TONIGHT! -- at 9pm Eastern and Pacific Time (8pm Central, 7pm Mountain) for a special program called Apocalypse How. I was interviewed extensively for the show and was told that CRN's ideas are featured in it.

From the dawn of civilization, mankind has been preoccupied with its own demise. All of the world's major religions have their own theories about how and when the world will end. Apocalypse How asks : If the apocalypse is coming, what form will it take?

If you get a chance to watch the 2-hour show, please tell us what you think about it!

POST-SHOW UPDATE: Well, I was pleased to get as much screen time as I did, but I was not very happy the way my segment was edited. As you might expect, I spent most of the two hours that I was interviewed talking about realistic near-term risks of molecular manufacturing, concentrating mostly on a nanotech arms race.

At the end of that discussion they asked me to say something about grey goo. I did so, reluctantly, but I emphasized that the dangers from non-replicating nano-built weaponry are more imminent, more likely, and maybe more severe. Of course, when they cut the whole thing together, it gave the impression, I think, that grey goo is a far greater threat than CRN judges it to be.

Mike Treder

Equality, Not!

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

Equality...is the result of human organization. We are not born equal.

— Hannah Arendt

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

Equality...is the result of human organization. We are not born equal.

— Hannah Arendt

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

Equality...is the result of human organization. We are not born equal.

— Hannah Arendt

H+ Magazine

A very cool new web magazine just debuted this week. H+ (the 'h' stands for humanity) is on the virtual newsstands, and it's available now for free download.

Our species faces a virtual agora of life-altering, paradigm-changing developments in science, technology, and culture. . . Our responsibility, then, is to cover the events and ideas -- the discoveries and the cultural expressions -- that are taking place on the borderline between the human and the post-human world. . . It represents nothing less than an attempt to have a realistic discourse about the human future while most of our leading intellectuals and politicians are still looking at that future through the rear-view mirror.

The above is from an introductory comment by the magazine's editor-in-chief, RU Sirius [yes, actually, I am].

CRN welcomes this addition to the discussion space of trends and technologies that will shape humanity and our possible descendants. In fact, it's likely that I will write a column on nanotech for the magazine, beginning with the next issue.

Happy reading!

Mike Treder

Underrating the Mid-Range

You've probably heard the dictum that most people expect too much change in the short term and too little change in the long term. That has been true generally, I think, and it may be why we hear complaints about 'No flying cars yet!' and so on.

But if too many people are looking for short term exaggerated change, and if they aren't fully comprehending the extreme changes that can occur over the long term, I'm also concerned that the middle range is badly underrated and could catch us by surprise.

Let's call the short term from one to five years. It's almost certain we won't have flying cars by then, or a colony on Mars, or a pill we can take to cure all diseases. Of course, we might be well on the way to having online access everywhere all the time, and that could be quite useful, but it's unlikely that people will see anything within the next five years that will knock their socks off.

How about the long term? Let's call that from 50 to 100 years. How much technological, social, and political change should we expect to see in that time frame? Given the vast differences in the world today -- in all three of those realms -- as compared to the lives of people from early in the last century, it seems beyond argument that enormous changes are in store. 

By the end of this century, if not before, many millions or even billions of people will spend much of their lives in nearly indistinguishable virtual realities. Fully developed biotechnology and genetic engineering will allow the creation of tailored plants, animals, chimeras, and whole biomes. Advanced nanotechnology, well beyond early generation molecular manufacturing, will completely revolutionize our infrastructures for living, working, traveling, and creating energy on earth and in space. 

All of that is dependent, however, on our ability to get safely past the formidable barrier of the mid-range.

What happens during the period from five to twenty years from now is very likely to determine whether the remainder of this century will be one of unparalleled abundance, of devastating war and destruction, of warming-induced ecological collapse and mass deaths, or perhaps some miserable but survivable combination thereof.

We can illustrate the challenge with this simple chart where we see an early period, the near-term, with somewhat evenly matched levels of existential danger and our capacities to adequately manage and avert the worst of those dangers. So far, so good.

 

Over the long term, our human (and posthuman?) civilizations may be able to acquire enough capacity from growth of technological aids and scientific know-how that we can dependably stay ahead of the greatest dangers.

But it is in that mid-range period, as we rapidly develop powerful new technologies, and as we have to grapple simultaneously with huge new problems -- caused by sea level rise, species depletion, mass human refugee migrations, crop failures and famines, state failures, pandemics, and more -- that is when we will reach the test of whether we are fit enough, mature enough, and wise enough to make the right decisions.

And the time to begin making those decisions is now, not when the barrage of problems is upon us, but today.

A good start would be to make a thorough examination of all the issues raised by exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing. CRN urges every large corporation, every big NGO, and every government body to undertake their own evaluation of the mid-term risks and rewards they may face, especially in the context of advanced nanotechnology, which will have deep and lasting effects on all of us. 

Mike Treder

World Public Forum in Rhodes

After arriving in Rhodes, Greece, on Thursday, October 9, and settling into my hotel room (where I got a brief nap after a long overnight flight from New York), I was taken by bus with a few hundred other attendees to the historic and beautiful Grand Master's Palace.

There we were treated to a lavish celebration to open the 6th annual "Dialogue of Civilizations," organized by the World Public Forum.

Fancy ceremonies completed, we got down to work the next morning. We began with a plenary session in which all three co-founders of the WPF spoke, and then we broke up into several simultaneous panel sessions, each of which lasted a day and a half.

I was assigned to the Energy panel, which was subdivided into consecutive sections on Energy Security, Geo-Economics, and Nanotechnology. There were so many other interesting talks being given in other panel sessions that I was tempted to sneak away from where I was supposed to be and attend them. I didn't, but this is one of those times I really wished to be in several places at once.

My presentation, titled "From Top Down to Bottom Up -- In Technology, Economics, and Geopolitics," seemed to be well-received, but, as usual at these sort of events, it's the contacts and conversations that occur between sessions in the halls that often turn out to be the most productive and valuable. I look forward to continuing and expanding on many of the new relationships I began in Rhodes on behalf of CRN.

On the final day, Sunday, October 12, we gathered again for another plenary session. There, representatives from each of the several panel sessions gave reports on what was covered in their areas, and what plans or recommendations they may have for going forward.

These were the panels that reported:

• International Migration
• Education
• Religious Cooperation
• Economic Crisis
• Social Stability & Political Structures
• Energy

I'll offer comments on reports from three of the panels:

1. Social Stability & Political Structures - A striking conclusion from this group was that "no dialogue between civilizations is possible until asymmetries of socioeconomic conditions [between North and South] are corrected." To me, this seems like both a tall order and an intransigent position, but I'm sure it's important for us in the developed world to recognize how condescending we often may appear to those who are not so fortunate.


2. Economic Crisis - Conclusions from this group (which included a number of leading economists from all over the world) comprised a gloomy set of best and worst case scenarios. Best case is that we will sink into the worst recession since the 1930s, with an average of 8-12% unemployment in developed countries and -3% annual GDPs. Worst case is a second great depression with unemployment approaching 20% in developed countries and -10% GDPs. Gulp.


3. Energy - Among the conclusions and recommendations were these: a) future conflict prevention requires a world structure for non-fossil-fuel energy generation; b) greatly expanded research and development for sustainable alternative energy is needed under the auspices of the United Nations; and c) a cooperative international agreement for development of advanced nanotechnology should be pursued to avoid dangerous competition (read "arms race") and to identify and satisfy new market opportunities.

It probably is not surprising but should be noted that nearly all the panels reported that their discussions were heavily influenced by the current economic crisis. In general, there was much criticism of neoliberalism, and even -- from some of the Russians -- a sense of triumphalism over the apparent failure of U.S. and Western "hegemonic" capitalism. I found that attitude a bit ironic, though, considering that Russia has moved heavily toward its own unfettered version of free-market capitalism. Ah, well...

One final conclusion of my own is that there was too little attention paid to the looming disasters of global warming and climate chaos. All our dialogue over other admittedly important issues may fade into the background when we are confronted with the cataclysm we have triggered and failed to avert.

On that note, let me close with a quote from another participant, Yuri Kanner, Chairman of the European Jewish Forum:

If history teaches us anything, it is that it does not teach us anything.

Mike Treder

Human Waste is a Killer

British journalist Rose George explains why shit can be a dangerous killer and why we should worship the toilet in her new book, The Big Necessity: The Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why It Matters.

This is from a Salon.com interview:

Here in the industrialized world, where we happily flush it and forget it, it's hard to imagine that literally billions of people elsewhere have no access to a toilet. It may also be difficult to believe that 90 percent of the world's sewage ends up untreated in oceans, rivers and lakes, some of that filth burbling out of our supposedly sophisticated sewage systems. While the humble toilet has added decades to the lives of those of us lucky enough to have one, George reports, it's also created a whole host of environmental problems.

Q: Some 2.6 billion people have no access to a toilet whatsoever, and that includes a latrine, a bucket or a box. They literally have nowhere to go. Can you talk about what that means?

A: Anyone who has traveled to India and taken an early morning train will know exactly what that means because all you have to do is look out of the window. What you'll see is people just simply squatting there, doing their business where they can.

What it means in terms of public health is catastrophic. Human waste can be extremely toxic. It can carry millions of bacteria, viruses and worms. And you don't want that kind of stuff lying around. But these 2.6 billion people, who have absolutely no sanitation, have no choice but to use the nearest bush or roadside. That means it's being tramped around in the human environment. It's getting into people's food, it's getting into their water, and it's making them extremely sick.

The death toll from diarrhea, which is largely caused by poor sanitation, is astronomical. It's the second biggest killer of children in the world after respiratory diseases.

READ THE REST

And after you read it, think about this...

Once nanofactory technology has been developed, it could be used almost immediately to start relieving the lack of sanitation, the need for clean water, the spread of infectious diseases, the paucity of education, and the scourge of poverty. Or, it could be used to make wealthy corporations even wealthier and powerful nations even more powerful.

We think one of the meanings of responsible is to start doing the former before the latter.

Mike Treder

Nothing more than a wild dream?

In our nanotechnology scenario #8, "Newshound Notebook," composed by members of the CRN Task Force, we write:

24 Jun 2013 - China’s economic growth continues to astound. I just checked with the Hypernet for earlier forecasts, and it turns out that a few years ago (in 2007), people were predicting that China would exceed the U.S. as the world’s #1 economy by around 2025. Now, the common wisdom is that it will happen no later than 2018. Amazing!

Note that this was prepared well before the current economic crisis, which has the U.S. economy taking a serious hit.

However, Stephen Aguilar-Millan, our colleague who writes The Futurist -- a must-read blog for anyone looking ahead -- has performed an interesting analysis that concludes it is highly unlikely for China to surpass the U.S. in GDP at any time before the mid-2020s.

I encourage you to read Stephen's entire article and review his statistics; both very enlightening. He concludes:

We can see that the forecast of 2015 as the point where China’s GDP overtakes America’s GDP is nothing more than a wild dream.

Mike Treder

Dialogue of Civilizations

Tonight I am flying from New York to Rhodes, Greece, to attend and participate in the World Public Forum's "Dialogue of Civilizations," an annual event that brings together experts, politicians, public and religious dignitaries from all the continents of the world.

I have been asked to deliver a report broadly based on nanotechnology and globalization. The title I have chosen is: "From ‘top down’ to ‘bottom up’ -- in technology, economics, and geopolitics."

Here is the mission of the World Public Forum:

World Public Forum is a deliberative-consultative body that unites various public organizations, members of organs of government, representatives of intellectual, cultural, spiritual, business and political elite from different countries, representatives of various cultural traditions, people that strive for contribution in dialogue among civilizations.

Key objects of the Forum are the following-uniting of efforts of world community for protection of spiritual and cultural values of humankind, organization of the space of constructive dialogue among the main civilizations of the modern world. Activities of the Forum aimed at elaboration, development and spreading of dialogue culture, cultivation of collaboration and understanding spirit in everyday life.

World Public Forum is aimed at the creation of effective and democratic instruments of solving of global problems and realization of evolutionary changes in the structure of modern society.

I look forward to meeting and exchanging ideas with the event’s esteemed participants.

During my travels, I'll try, if possible, to maintain some blogging, but I can't be certain how much time and how much online access I'll have.

Mike Treder