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« Change the Past and the Future | Main | Perspectives on Geoengineering »

August 25, 2008


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Your last sentence reminds me of this article (http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11670918), which stunned me by the following statistic: One study has shown that over the past 15 years military victories have resolved only 7.5% of conflicts, while negotiations have prevailed in 92% of cases.

John B

I'd love to see that (strangely unlinked) study's methodology. Perhaps there might be some, um, hidden assumptions in there (to give 'em the benefit of the doubt...)

I don't trust bare, contextless & detail-free stats. They're FAR too easily manipulated.


Tom Craver

I presume that for military victory, they're just counting the instances where one side totally routed the other side.

The false implication is that negotiations would have happened without violent conflict. Often negotiations are only possible after one side becomes afraid they'll ultimately lose.

Brian Wang

People concerned about life extension should vote online to get Amex to fund this project.

As of Aug 28, 2008 at 4:52pm PST, the life extension project is 21st on the list of projects with 1500 nominations. The current top projects have 3000 to 3900 nominations. There are four more days of voting. More of votes are needed to ensure that the life extension project makes the top 25. The next round of voting will need to see at least three times the current rate of votes to ensure a victory.

American Express is going to fund the winning projects with $2.5 million:

* $1,500,000 for the winning project
* $500,000 for the 2nd place project
* $300,000 for the 3rd place project
* $100,000 each for the two remaining finalist projects

The 12 member Advisory Panel will evaluate the projects in conjunction with American Express to determine which projects progress to the Top 25 voting round. A winning project must first make it into the Top 25 and into the Top 5. Then, it must receive the most votes of all the projects.

If you are an american express cardmember or just a US resident you can vote to support an Aubrey de Grey life extension project which is in the running for $1.5 million from American Express.

The advisory panel is here
Voting ends September 1st, take a second to vote now.

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