Horizon Scanning

Lloyd's is the world's largest insurance marketer, providing specialist insurance services to businesses in over 200 countries and territories. A few weeks ago, Lloyd's News Centre reported on a new list of "25 alarming threats to the ecosystem identified by UK environmental scientists and policymakers." (Hat tip to Nanotechnology Now.)

The list, which is the result of an exercise called horizon scanning, also points to hazards associated with climate change such as coastal flooding, increased fire risk, and the growing demand for biofuels and biomass.

Published online in the British Ecological Society's Journal of Applied Ecology, the list came out of a two-day meeting held in Cambridge involving 35 representatives from government, environmental NGOs and academia.

And what do you suppose was the #1 Risk identified by this horizon scanning exercise?

The 25 Threats Identified by Horizon Scanning

1. Nanotechnologies
2. Invasive potential and possible ecosystem impacts of artificial life and biomimetic robots
3. Unintended consequences of pathogens developed by modern biotechnology methods
4. Direct impact of novel pathogens
5. Impacts of control efforts for novel pathogens
6. Facilitation of non-native invasive species through climate change
7. Large-scale restoration for iconic wildlife and habitats
8. Action to facilitate species range change in the face of climate change
9. Frequency of extreme weather events
10. Geo-engineering the planet to mitigate the effects of climate change
11. Implications for biodiversity of the adoption of an ecosystem approach
12. Increased fire risk
13. Increasing demand for biofuel and biomass
14. Step change in demand for food and hence pressure on land for agriculture
15. Ocean acidification
16. Reduction of coldwater continental shelf marine habitats
17. Significant increase in coastal and offshore power generation
18. Extreme high-water coastal events
19. Sea level rise resulting in loss of coastal and intertidal habitats
20. Dramatic changes in freshwater flows
21. Nature conservation policy and practice may not keep pace with environmental change
22. Internet and new e-technologies connect people with information on the environment
23. Decline in engagement with nature
24. Adoption of monetary value as the key criterion in conservation decision-making
25. Public antagonism towards wildlife due to perceived human health threat

Of course, 'nanotechnologies' is a big category, which can include both current threats such as environmental and health risks from nanoparticle exposure, in addition to longer-term risks associated with advanced nanotechnology.

Trevor Maynard, Manager of Emerging Risks at Lloyd’s, says:

“The list produced by the horizon scanning exercise was interesting because it contained threats with obvious implications for insurers – such as an increase in extreme weather events. But it also produced other threats with less obvious implications. For example, the introduction by companies of invasive plant species to meet demands for biofuels and whether any liability issues might arise as a consequence.”

Maynard thinks that the list also poses important questions related to liability and insurability. “The risks attached to geo-engineering – fertilising the oceans to encourage plankton growth and increase the size of the carbon sink, for example – are huge.”

We're pleased to see that many of the concerns expressed by CRN since our founding five years ago seem to be making inroads into conversations at high levels.

(Incidentally, this is not the first time we have talked about horizon scanning here. In fact, we took part last year in a two-hour interview as part of a project supported by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.)

Mike Treder

Comments

[ya-man]

Seems we may be getting there;

first proto-proto assembler;

http://www.physorg.com/news128600196.html