We work hard at CRN to maintain a balance in presenting both the risks and the potential benefits of advanced nanotechnology. Similarly, we try to steer a middle path between optimistic and pessimistic views about the future. That's not always easy, especially when you spend as much time as we do trying to understand the range of bad outcomes that could occur, and how to avoid them.
But amidst the dire predictions of danger from runaway climate change, a nanotech arms race, severe economic upheaval, and so on, it's always nice to find some bright spots.
One trend that should give us hope is the significant long-term reduction in violent crime in our largest cities. For example, in New York, where I live, the murder rate has dropped to its lowest level since 1963, when the city began keeping "reliable records."
Given the fact that the further back in history you go, the more violent and lawless human society has been, you could make a strong argument that New York City's murder rate is now at its lowest rate ever.
The decline is so striking, and apparently inexorable, that it allows headlines like this one:
The Killing of Murder
As the homicide rate continues to drop, the impossible beckons: What would it take to go all the way to zero?
The previously unthinkable "death of murder" (admittedly, an idealistic exaggeration, but still) merges well with an equally remarkable, statistically observable, longer-term historical trend away from violence and toward peace:
Global violence has fallen steadily since the middle of the twentieth century. According to the Human Security Brief 2006, the number of battle deaths in interstate wars has declined from more than 65,000 per year in the 1950s to less than 2,000 per year in this decade. In Western Europe and the Americas, the second half of the century saw a steep decline in the number of wars, military coups, and deadly ethnic riots.
Does all this mean, then, that CRN's concerns about nano-weaponry and the increasing "democratization of violence" are unnecessary? Or should we continue to be wary?
Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics blog
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