For a long time I've said that if we look ahead a few years, to around the year 2020, scan the news headlines and listen to the talk shows, two topics of discussion will dominate all others: climate change and privacy.
I still think those are likely to be huge issues, but now I'm going to add one other to the list -- China -- and predict that these three will be the most highly debated topics in 2020.
The astute reader will note that I have not included nanotechnology or molecular manufacturing as prime subjects for public attention in that period. That's because I expect that although the effects of nanotech-based manufacturing may be of great interest, the technologies themselves likely will not be spoken about with any more frequency than they are now.
We've already devoted a great deal of space on this blog to the three topics I've mentioned -- China, climate change, and privacy -- so we don't need to go into much more detail at this point. But I'll point to one fascinating piece of recent discussion on China that portends years and years of debate ahead.
From the introduction to an excellent special issue of The New Scientist:
China's leaders are no fools. Most senior members of the central government were trained in that most practical of disciplines, engineering. They know that the nation's present trajectory is unsustainable, both economically and environmentally. If China is to continue its remarkable development, it must transform itself from an exporter of cheap manufactured goods built to western blueprints into what its leaders call an "innovation nation" - able to sustain its growth through home-grown ingenuity. So they are pouring huge sums into science, particularly at the applied end of hot fields like nanotechnology and renewable energy. . . [emphasis added]Can China really reinvent itself as a lean, green technological superpower? Will the rural poor get left behind as the urban middle class reaps the benefits of rapid economic growth? Or will the economic miracle falter or even collapse? And can the Communist Party maintain its grip on power through it all? Will it ultimately be an engine of reform, or an obstacle to change? Will China eventually embrace democracy as it is practised in the west? Or does conflict lie ahead?
When the initial results of CRN's Global Task Force scenario project are released later this month, you'll discover that in many of the speculative future stories we developed, China is a leading player. That's no surprise for anyone who's paying attention to trends and projections, but it is another indicator that the world we'll all inhabit in 2020 will be heavily influenced by the fortunes of that great nation.
Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog
I've got an impression that these days CRN is more concerned with problems of climate change, privacy, China, nuclear power, etc. rather then safe administration/development of molecular manufacturing.
Posted by: Dan S | November 20, 2007 at 11:48 PM