Only a Few Billion More to Go

Is the world on the way to overcoming the "digital divide"?

With personal computer ownership rapidly increasing in developing countries, the progress is significant. But as this commentary from Andrew Leonard suggests, we've still got a long way to go:

A report released Monday by the market research firm Forrester predicts that by 2008, 1 billion personal computers will be in use worldwide. By 2015, that number is supposed to double, mainly due to booming markets in Brazil, Russia, India and China -- the so-called BRIC countries. Considering that the personal computer is roughly 30 years old, that's a fairly substantial acceleration of the growth curve. . .

[I]f the world is already "flat," in the Thomas Friedman sense in which the spread of digital networks and PCs has obliterated, or at least weakened, international borders and the limitations of geography, then it's set to get a whole lot flatter. Another billion PC users in the world could mean another billion Internet-connected white-collar workers, looking for their niche in the global economy. Competitive labor markets will only get more so.

But that might be an overly bleak interpretation. Another way to look at the rapid uptake of computers in the BRICs is an example of the astonishing possibilities for catch-up that technology offers the developing world. Russia is a special case, but Brazil, India and China have spent most of the last century or two in a state of development hopelessly far behind the industrialized masters of the universe. Today, they are racing forward, and it seems likely that the more citizens they have sitting in front of LCD monitors, the more quickly they will bridge what gaps remain.

But perhaps the most telling number is the one not included. There are roughly 6 and a half billion people in the world today. If 1 billion have computers, that means 5 billion or so don't.

A point well taken.

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Comments

[Tom Craver]

"There are roughly 6 and a half billion people in the world today. If 1 billion have computers, that means 5 billion or so don't. "

Due to PC sharing - families, schools, libraries, internet cafes, etc - I'd guess there's about 2 users for every PC, so maybe 2 billion have access to a PC. So after another billion, we'll be past the half-way mark.

Getting the last 2 billion may be difficult - the PC is getting cheap enough, but internet infrastructure costs need to come way down for rural areas.

A localized P2P internet might work out. Every PC a webserver, so people can create their own content and services for others nearby. Email forwarding service, with small ISPs connected to both P2P and internet. Some means of allowing mirrored web pages obtained by those on both networks to diffuse out into the P2P network - each PC mirroring any content it has seen recently, for any neighbors on the P2P network.

[Brian Wang]

I point out some other numbers to consider

3 billion mobile phones by the end of 2007. Almost the same number of debit and credit card users.
600 million children 5 or younger. Technically not deprived without a PC or cellphone.
1.8 billion 14 or younger.