In a comment on our "Nanotechnology Policy Gap" blog article, Jan-Willem Bats asked:
Does this progress make your "probably by 2015" prediction shift to a "probably by 2012" prediction?
He is referring to the timeline statement on CRN's main web site that says:
Today the theories for using mechanical chemistry to directly fabricate nanoscale structures are well-developed and awaiting progress in enabling technologies. Assuming all this theory works—and no one has established a problem with it yet—exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing appears to be inevitable. It might be become a reality by 2010, likely will by 2015, and almost certainly will by 2020.
To answer the question, no, this new IDEAS factory development does not give us reason to alter our prediction. Instead, it confirms what we have been saying all along.
Our expectations for the rapid development of exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing are based on a careful study of the steps that will be required to make this technological breakthrough, along with an understanding of the accelerating trends in computing and other enabling technologies.
When CRN posted the statement above (in July 2004) it was considered, by many who noticed it, to be overly optimistic or even ridiculous. But in the two and a half years since then, numerous events have occurred that make our timeline look much more reasonable.
- September 2004: CRN's Chris Phoenix and Tihamer Toth-Fejel of General Dynamics were awarded a research grant from the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts to study "Large-Product General-Purpose Design and Manufacturing Using Nanoscale Modules". Their results were described in an article on NASA's website a year later.
- February 2005: CRN prepared a series of white papers for a Congressionally mandated NAS/NRC study on "Molecular Self-Assembly." Chris Phoenix was an invited panelist for the NRC meeting.
- June 2005: The Foresight Nanotech Institute, in cooperation with Battelle, a global research organization, announced their initiative to develop a "Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems." That project is ongoing.
- June 2006: Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Ralph Merkle launched a website announcing a "Nanofactory Collaboration," the first project explicitly aimed at building a high-performance general-purpose nanofactory manufacturing system based on molecular manufacturing. The timeline of their project calls for initial diamond mechanosynthesis in 2010, with "nanofactories and nanorobotic products" beginning around 2020.
- December 2006: The US National Academy of Sciences released its long-awaited analysis of molecular manufacturing, in "A Matter of Size: Triennial Review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative." CRN stated that conclusions published in the report will accelerate research toward the development of molecularly-precise manufacturing.
- January 2007: Remarkable results were achieved during a week long gathering of British scientists. The advanced projects they announced -- which have been funded and are expected to finish in three to five few years -- suggest that the era of molecular manufacturing could arrive far more swiftly than previously imagined.
Along the way, of course, an enormous number of impressive scientific and technical developments have also been announced -- too many to list here. We've written about the most important of them in our series of monthly science essays.
Our concern is that progress on the technical side is moving much faster than research into the profound societal and environmental implications of molecular manufacturing.
Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog
Comments