Responsible Nanotechnology

Nukes vs. Wood Fires

Back in my hippie days, I enjoyed the music and the message of a song called "Power," written and performed by John Hall, former lead singer of the group Orleans.

Just give me the warm power of the sun
Give me the steady flow of a waterfall
Give me the spirit of living things as they return to clay
Just give me the restless power of the wind
Give me the comforting glow of a wood fire
But won't you take all your atomic poison power away

That was an anti-nuke anthem and a lovely tune. Looking back, though, this song reveals some of the naivete of the time. Sure, it feels good to be against 'atomic poison power', but take a look at the alternatives...

• Warm power of the sun -- solar energy -- OK, that's good.
• Steady flow of a waterfall -- hydroelectric -- Um, maybe not so good, when you think about the ecological damage of something like the Three Gorges Dam.
• Spirit of living things as they return to clay -- Hm, I think that refers to fossil fuels, like coal and oil, probably the primary cause of global warming.
• Restless power of the wind -- windmills -- OK, I guess, if you don't mind how they look.
• Comforting glow of a wood fire -- Well, yeah, I agree that I love a wood fire as much as anyone, but it's far from an environmentally friendly solution.

A recent news story says "Wood stoves are big culprits in climate change":

Cooking stoves fuelled by wood or crop residue are contributing to climate change significantly more than expected, say researchers.

Scientists have found that smoke produced by these stoves, which are traditionally used for cooking and heating in developing countries, contains twice as many soot particles as laboratory experiments had previously indicated.

When released into the atmosphere, the black, noxious particles — which are darker than those produced by grassland or forest fires — absorb light and increase atmospheric temperatures. . .

[B]urning firewood produces 800,000 metric tons of soot worldwide a year.

By comparison, diesel vehicles generate about 890,000 metric tons of soot a year. Both sources together contribute 10 per cent of the soot emitted annually into the atmosphere.

It's ironic, isn't it, that easy answers like 'no nukes' and 'comforting wood fires' don't always make sense in the real world. In fact, building more modern nuclear power plants might be a sensible replacement for fossil fuels.

Of course, the most robust solutions for global energy production and for climate change remediation are likely to come from molecular manufacturing.

And for those of us who really enjoy the ambiance of a wood-burning fireplace, maybe we can have our cake and eat it too. Imagine a completely clean in-home system that could burn wood and then scrub the smoke and soot in a nano-built chimney...

One of the first products of molecular manufacturing will be efficient molecular sorting systems. It will be possible to remove the harmless and useful gases from the combustion products--perhaps using them to build the next products--and send the rest back to be re-burned.

Ahh...

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Nano-Built Product Disposal

In this month's CRN science essay, Chris Phoenix writes:

We are often asked, "How will nanofactory-built products be recycled?"

One of the advantages of molecular manufacturing is that it will use very strong and high-performance materials. Most of them probably will not be biodegradable. So what will save us from being buried in nano-litter?

The first piece of good news is that nano-built products will use materials more efficiently. The second good news is that carbon-based products will burn once any water ballast is removed. The third good news is that fewer exotic materials and elements should be needed. . .

Not surprisingly, there is also some bad news. . .

READ MORE

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

A Special Note to Kiwis

As mentioned in our latest C-R-Newsletter, Fern Evitt of Auckland is planning to create an organization in New Zealand for people who are concerned about the societal implications of advanced nanotechnology and would like to work toward solutions. If you live in New Zealand and want to know more, please email her. Fern says she also would be happy to hear from Aussies.

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

C-R-Newsletter #46

The latest edition of the C-R-Newsletter has been posted on our main website.

CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE:

Doomsday Discussion
CRN at the Naval War College
Global Futures Strategist
New Zealand Gets Organized
Treder Speech for Download
CRN Goes to Brazil
Books in the Works
Feature Essay: Recycling Nano-Products

Read the whole newsletter here — and sign up for a free subscription here.

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology future

Radically Faster Simulations

Computers tend to get about ten times faster in about five years. In ten years, 100 times faster; in fifteen years, 1000 times faster. This is called Moore's Law, and it's been quite steady and predictable for several decades.

Recently, Nanorex simulated a 25,374 atom machine called a worm gear. The simulation took about 370 hours of computer time. We might expect that five years from now, this would take about 37 hours--still painfully slow.

But a new thing is happening: computer time is being sold on the Internet. Amazon.com is selling computer time by the hour for 10 cents apiece. I doubt that the price per hour will rise as time goes by; meanwhile, the hour will get more and more powerful. Five years from now, the full simulation will need 37 hours and cost only $3.70.

NanoHive already is designed for @home (distributed computing) type use, so I'd expect it to be portable to the Amazon "cloud" which is designed to provide standard computer resources. In that case, a user running large simulations would be able to buy 100 CPUs in parallel for the 22 minutes the simulation would take on a 100-CPU cluster. If the user bought 1000 CPUs in parallel--I'm guessing that Amazon's computer network would support this--they still would pay only $0.10 per CPU-hour, and the simulation would take a bit over two minutes.

There are two ways to look at this. One is that private users will now have inexpensive access to a supercomputer. The other way to look at it is that for just $10 per clock hour--affordable even to hobbyists--researchers can get a ten-year jump on Moore's Law.

The rapid advance of Moore's Law is one of the reasons why we expect molecular manufacturing to get rapidly easier to develop. Now, as soon as a bit of software infrastructure is put in place, the widespread availability of supercomputing will advance by ten years or more.

Chris Phoenix

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Inspiration

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

You can't wait for inspiration, you have to go after it with a club.

— Jack London

Tag: quotes

From EO-1 to HAL 9000

Will the earth ever possess intelligent beings far greater than today's humans? If so, will they be our companions, our conquerors -- or ourselves?

It's generally beyond the scope of this blog to speculate about the future further ahead than 20 or 30 years from now. By then, we expect that exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing will have made such profound impacts on earth and on human society that much of it may be unrecognizable.

One of those profound impacts could be superintelligence, perhaps resident in a global network of atomically precise advanced computers built by nanofactories.

But, you know, we may not have to wait even that long. It is conceivable (however improbable) that before the advent of productive nanosystem technology, the relentless march of Moore's Law may bring us computers powerful enough to wake up and become self-aware -- and then to begin a process of recursive self-improvement that quickly will leave human intelligence in the dust.

Too farfetched? Well, maybe, but...

The Indonesian volcano Talang on the island of Sumatra had been dormant for centuries when, in April 2005, it suddenly rumbled to life. A plume of smoke rose 1000 meters high and nearby villages were covered in ash. Fearing a major eruption, local authorities began evacuating 40,000 people. UN officials, meanwhile, issued a call for help: Volcanologists should begin monitoring Talang at once.

Little did they know, high above Earth, a small satellite was already watching the volcano. No one told it to. EO-1 (short for "Earth Observing 1") noticed the warning signs and started monitoring Talang on its own. . .

EO-1 is a new breed of satellite that can think for itself. "We programmed it to notice things that change (like the plume of a volcano) and take appropriate action," explains Steve Chien, leader of JPL's Artificial Intelligence Group. EO-1 can re-organize its own priorities to study volcanic eruptions, flash-floods, forest fires, disintegrating sea-ice—in short, anything unexpected.

Is this real intelligence? "Absolutely," he says. EO-1 passes the basic test: "If you put the system in a box and look at it from the outside, without knowing how the decisions are made, would you say the system is intelligent?" Chien thinks so.

And now the intelligence is growing. "We're teaching EO-1 to use sensors on other satellites."

Admittedly, it's a long way from the EO-1 to the HAL 9000. But I expect there will be some big surprises for us in the next few decades, and superintelligence could be one of them.

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Phoenix on the Radio

CRN's Chris Phoenix will be the featured guest this weekend on a syndicated radio program, "Health Law and Politics." Host Jonathan Emord will talk with Chris about about molecular manufacturing and its implications for the medical field.

The show airs Saturday from 4PM to 6PM Eastern time (8PM to 10PM GMT), and is available online over the Talk Star Radio Network. It will be rebroadcast on Sunday from 2PM to 4PM Eastern time (6PM to 8PM GMT). You can email your questions in advance to the host, or call in toll-free (US only) during the Saturday show at 877-528-TALK (8255).

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Green Cars of the Future

Automakers plan to use advanced nanotechnology to build environmentally friendly cars. Some automakers, that is, at least in concept.

Acura FCX 2020 Le Mans: It looks like the Batmobile, but uses lightweight, recyclable materials. A hydrogen fuel-cell drivetrain propels it to take on a future 24 Hours of Le Mans, while molecular nanotechnology allows lightweight construction.

Volkswagen Nanospyder: It uses billions of spore-like nanobots -- complete with eyeballs, mouths and tiny VW logos -- that bind together to create the vehicle. Impending collisions can be picked up by the lead bots, and the information can be sent elsewhere to bolster certain sections of the vehicle.

We find it interesting that design engineers from Volkswagen and Honda/Acura would submit these futuristic concept cars that might make use of molecular manufacturing. You can see more cars at the Kicking Tires blog, where we learn:

Nine automakers have submitted entries in the upcoming Los Angeles Auto Show’s Design Challenge, a competition aimed at conceiving a futuristic car that’s environmentally friendly, by both design and fuel source, and can be recycled after five years on the road. It’s the third such competition sponsored by the auto show, and all entries are strictly two-dimensional. Judges choose a winner based on originality, environmentalism, safety and how well it reflects Southern California’s “green” lifestyle.

So it looks like advanced nanotechnology means a green future -- and hot cars!

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Global Arms Control Demise

Harsh V. Pant is a lecturer in the Department of Defence Studies at King's College London. He holds a doctorate degree from the University of Notre Dame and a masters degree from Jawaharlal Nehru University in India.

Writing for Power and Interest News Report (PINR), Pant says:

Now that North Korea has tested a nuclear weapon, perhaps the time has come to openly accept the demise of the global nuclear arms control and non-proliferation regime. From Iran and North Korea to the nuclear black market of Pakistan's A.Q. Khan, new challenges continue to emerge and threaten to undermine the global arms control architecture.

Following India's open challenge to the global arms control and disarmament framework in May 1998, major powers in the international system were forced to re-evaluate their orientation toward global arms control and non-proliferation. The North Korean nuclear explosion has become yet another nail in the coffin and international arms control seems headed for a slow but inevitable demise.

But Pant suggests that global arms control might not be a very workable idea at all:

In what is termed as the "arms control paradox," it is argued that if arms control is needed in a strategic relationship because the states in question might go to war, then it will be impractical for that very reason. The record of the Cold War shows that the United States and the former Soviet Union were equally responsible for reneging on their arms control promises. Not only did both of them attempt to gain nuclear superiority during the Cold War despite a plethora of arms control agreements, but both were equally responsible for encouraging proliferation in various ways. As the great powers try to maximize their share of power, their interests inevitably come into conflict with arms control and this causes these agreements to unravel.

And, he asks, is universal disarmament even desirable?

There have been numerous proposals for universal disarmament without any real evaluation of their impact on international security. There are significant strategic, political and technical obstacles to nuclear disarmament. In an international system that remains anarchic in nature and where states have to fend for their own security, states will be reluctant to give up their nuclear weapons since these weapons serve as an excellent deterrent. Also, there is a perception in some countries that nuclear weapons enhance their status and influence in the international system.

Moreover, the problem will remain of how to convince states that other states would not cheat and renege on their commitment of not using the huge amounts of weapons-grade fissile material for weapons purposes. It is doubtful that international organizations of any kind would be effective against states trying to deal with endemic uncertainty in global politics.

Even if these obstacles can be overcome, the larger question remains: is universal disarmament desirable? It may seem odd, but the huge nuclear stockpiles during the Cold War maintained international stability.

Pant is not the first to point out the problems with disarmament. Nor is he alone in asserting the paradoxically stabilizing effects of nuclear proliferation.

But although his article tolls the death knell for the failing nuclear arms control regime, Pant says we must look for something to replace it:

A new global security architecture is needed if there is to be an attempt to tackle the emerging problem of proliferation and terrorism since the old security structure has largely failed.

Nanotechnology will complicate things even more. Untraceable weapons of mass destruction, built in quantity at very low cost, and with upgraded designs constantly being developed -- this augurs an era of rapidly shifting balances of power. We agree with the urgent need for a new global security architecture.

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog