Fantastic Visions

David Kirkpatrick, senior editor of Fortune magazine says:

In a short piece I wrote as part of a broader look at the future last September, I speculated that in the future we would feel that everything in life had become like an open-book test. "Any kind of information is available anytime you want it," I wrote. "Simply speak a question, or even think it. You will always be connected wirelessly to the network, and an answer will return from a vast, collectively-produced data matrix. Google queries will seem quaint."

At the time, I thought I was being a little wild, but less than a year later such talk is almost routine in the futurist camp. Chris Taylor at Business 2.0 this week published "Surfing the Web with Nothing but Brainwaves." Taylor explains that already quadriplegics can play videogames, control robotic arms, and turn a TV on and off, using only their minds. They are connected to a computer with an implant that reads electrical patterns in the brain.

Kirkpatrick wrote the above to introduce an article by Peter Schwartz and Rita Koselka in the current issue of Fortune on quantum computing, which begins:

She awakes early on the morning of April 10, 2030, in the capable hands of her suburban Chicago apartment. All night, microscopic sensors in her bedside tables have monitored her breathing, heart rate, and brain activity.

The tiny blood sample she gave her bathroom sink last night has been analyzed for free radicals and precancerous cells; the appropriate preventative drugs will be delivered to her hotel in Atlanta this evening. It's an expensive service, but as a gene therapist, Sharon Oja knows it's worth it.

She steps into the shower. The tiles inside detect her presence and start displaying the day's top headlines. The manned mission to Mars is going to launch ahead of schedule. U.S. military drones have destroyed another terrorist training camp using smart dust. A top Manhattan banker has been found guilty of fraud and sentenced to 10 years of low tech.

And today is the 20th anniversary of the very first quantum computer.

Sharon laughs. It is her 24th birthday, and she has little idea what the world was like before the qubits - the smallest pieces of quantum information - took over.

It's a fascinating and amusing piece. You should read the whole thing.

But you know what? It's too conservative. Heck, the authors even admit it.

Science fiction, right? Sure - just like satellites, moon shots, and the original microprocessor once were. To scientists on the quantum computing frontier, this scenario is conservative.

"The age of computing has not even begun," says Stan Williams, a research scientist at Hewlett-Packard. "What we have today are tiny toys not much better than an abacus. The challenge is to approach the fundamental laws of physics as closely as we can."

And now I'll make my prediction.

Today we're beginning to see maintream media coverage of "futuristic" ideas like quantum computing; not many years ago, we started seeing stories about "science fiction made real" through genetic engineering and biotechnology. Next on the horizon will be general awareness of the seemingly fantastic implications of nanofactory technology. That kind of high-profile coverage may still be two or three years away, but it's coming soon.

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Comments

[NanoEnthusiast]

In the little sci-fi story, I saw nothing that required quantum properties in the computers. I don't think we can even predict what QCs will ultimately do to change our lives.

[todd]

That's an important point it's hard to say how quantum computers will affect our lives. There was another article recently we read where computer modeling is reaching the same or similar outcomes as actual testing. When computer models reach the complexity where physical testing is no longer necessary and the eventual outcome can be determined through the use of an extremely elaborate model. These models should be able to be run on quantum computers giving us a fantastic jump over existing computational capabilities and a clear view of are environment and existence. One could envision a extremely elaborate whether model telling us the weather for an extended period of time with absolute accuracy. The advances in aerospace through modeling of new airframes and perhaps even new shuttle designs should be substantially enhanced with the modeling through quantum computers. There are likely dozens of examples that could be given in real-world situations where computer models drawn would provide a wealth of information about a given problem.

We could perhaps see a situation where our entire life is modeled to a detail that is unprecedented. We could simply input all known information about everything and begin to predict how specific events would transpire based on some catalyst. Good examples would be if a meteor were to strike the planet how would one expect individuals on the opposite side of the planet to react and how one would advise in preparation for such an event. Another good example would be to simply input everything known and present a catalyst in the form of a new virus then begin to predict the spread of the virus and its related problems. One could then extract from this scenario the most likely vaccines that will be required to be on hand and the quantity necessary to prevent widespread infection. Again there are likely many many possible scenarios for modeling that are currently impossible with technology simply because we do not have and cannot express the complexity of the problem with in the code and cannot possibly hold for a clear answer to the question without in some cases hundreds of years of the fastest supercomputers on the planet performing the search for the answer. But in the use of significantly advanced quantum computers these answers should be child's play in the performance of its duties for this computer.

In the above examples I do not believe that we actually require a artificial intelligent computer as previously discussed we simply require a elaborate model to perform any of the requested operations.

Does anyone hear know as I have a question on the number of quid bits currently being discussed for an initial quantum computer development. Are we discussing the likelihood of constructing a 100 quid bits computer or are we expecting the number to be closer to 20 or 30. My next question would be is there some avenue that would support the manufacture of 1000 or 10,000 quid bits and to what the eventual upper limits are.

todd

[Jonathan]

How many qubits could we actually use? I understand that 300 would have more states than the atoms in the known universe. Most modelling applications will probably require significantly less.

I also understand that scientists have as of this year, benchmarked quantum control of a 12 qubit system

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060508164700.htm

[Tom Mazanec]

I don't believe weather prediction, due to the Butterfly Effect.

[DT]

In the 1950s they thought that in year 2000 the world would look like what we now think 2060 will look like. The problem is predicting the future on paper is much easier than actually making it happen.