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« Happy Holidays from CRN | Main | Hype and Fear »

December 27, 2004


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Dalibor SRAMEK

If you like future timelines I would recommend BTexact Technology Timeline created by Ian Pearson. The last version is from 2001 and the next one may be published soon. Except other things the timeline contains a few predictions about nanotechnology.

Janessa Ravenwood

Dead link and dead site. Do they have a mirror somewhere?

Mike Treder, CRN

Janessa, which link(s) do you mean? They are all working for me.

Janessa Ravenwood

OK, working now. Wasn't earlier.

Tom Craver

I read through that some years back, and thought it was way over-optimistic on most points, even if you take the most limited possible implementation as satisfying it. Possibly in the longer term it'll get more on target, since people tend to over-estimate near term change and under-estimate long term change.

The approach appears to have been to make long lists of interesting developments, order them roughly by perceived difficulty, and slam them into dates. It doesn't appear to try to guess how the impact of one development might advance or delay other developments.

Still, it's an interesting list of possibilities.

michael vassar

Wow. What fantastically stupifyingly bad predictions accross the board. I wonder who buys this sort of stuff. Actually, that would be very worth knowing. Whoever does needs some new futurist advisors. I'm on the market for such work.


As to the impact of future technologies on the society as a whole as stated earlier the a cumulative impact from one technology on another is an important variable.

As to their placement on the list and to their importance I would just like to say I believe the importance of medical advances in the area of aging far outweigh any importance in comparison to material goods and services. That is to say if we extend life beyond what is currently considered reasonable all other possibilities become probable. If I can live for 10,000 plus years I will have the time to develop and implement all other existing technologies taken from the list.


Paint Branch High School

i hate school


DOes anyone know about nanotechnology?!



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