Responsible Nanotechnology

Fast Takeoff: Introduction

When and why will molecular manufacturing revolutionize the world? From a technical point of view, the answer has a few subtle but easily understandable aspects. Understanding those points will let us project from current and near-future technology developments, to understand how far we are from a molecular manufacturing breakthrough.

Over the next few weeks, I'll be writing a series of posts exploring the various aspects of fast takeoff. I'll be covering design spaces, product design, factories-building-factories, product performance, the economics of competing technologies, and whatever else seems necessary to understanding the difference between a cool technology and a revolutionary one.

By the time I'm done, CRN's new website design should be live, and I'll convert these posts into new content. (Yay!)

Here's a teaser: A very basic and primitive computer-controlled molecular manufacturing system might have a million atoms (or molecular building blocks). If 99% of those atoms can be placed by the system, then 10,000 atoms must be placed "by hand." That's a very large molecule, or a very large number of scanning probe operations. Probably, a system like this would not be revolutionary - too hard to build, to design, or both. But a system that could handle 99.99% of its atoms would only need 100-atom "inputs" per copy. That is quite feasible by today's standards. So a difference of less than 1% can make the difference between a laboratory demo and a revolutionary manufacturing system.

Chris Phoenix

Mike Treder Takes New Position

This is the text of a press release issued today:

Mike Treder Takes New Position at
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies

Mike Treder, executive director of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, leaves that position effective March 9, 2009, to become managing director of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. Treder co-founded CRN in 2002 with nanotechnologist Chris Phoenix, who will continue to direct the organization. Dr. James Hughes, executive director and co-founder of IEET, made the announcement.

"Mike is someone with a well-earned reputation for knowledge and expertise about a wide range of subjects, which he combines with a passion and competence in growing successful organizations," said Dr. Hughes. "We feel lucky to have him, and we're confident that he will help us better achieve our mission while at the same time expanding the important work he's done so well at CRN."

Mr. Treder, who has been a fellow of the IEET since its founding in 2004, said, "CRN and the IEET have always had close ties and overlapping missions. In this new role I can continue informing people about the disruptive potential of molecular manufacturing while working within the broader scope of the IEET."

"I look forward to engaging with Mike in his new position at the IEET to promote closer collaboration between our two organizations," said Mr. Phoenix. "We've accomplished a lot in raising awareness about the risks and benefits of advanced nanotechnology, and I'm sure we'll continue sharing and progressing toward the same goals."

The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology is a non-profit research and advocacy organization concerned with the major military, societal, and environmental implications of molecular manufacturing. CRN promotes public awareness and education, with the aim of creating and implementing wise, comprehensive, and balanced plans for global management of the technology. Mr. Treder will remain on the Board of Advisors for CRN.

The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies is a globally-oriented think tank that promotes the work of experts who examine the social implications of scientific and technological progress. IEET aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of emerging technologies on individuals and societies, and to help shape public policies that distribute the benefits and reduce the risks of technological advancement.

Mr. Treder is a prolific writer, speaker, and activist with a background in technology and communications company management. His essays on the Responsible Nanotechnology blog have gained a wide following, and he will continue to write as part of the IEET's Ethical Technology blog. As an accomplished presenter on the societal implications of emerging technologies, Mr. Treder has addressed conferences and groups around the world, including in the United States, Canada, Great Britain, Spain, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil. He lives in New York City.

Mr. Treder's other affiliation include:

• Board of Directors, Humanity+
• Scientific Advisory Board, Lifeboat Foundation
• Advisory Board, Global Risks Council
• Consultant, Future Technologies Advisory Group
• Editorial Advisory Board, Nanotech Briefs
• Consultant, AC/UNU Millennium Project

Latest Issue of H+ Magazine

Is the future cancelled?

That's the provocative question headlining the latest issue of h+ magazine, available now at your virtual newsstand. If you'll turn to page 55, you'll find an article by yours truly, titled "Nanotechnology, for Better or for Worse."

Here is a description of what you can expect in future issues:

h+ covers technological, scientific, and cultural trends that are changing — and will change — human beings in fundamental ways. We will be following developments in areas like NBIC (nano-bio-info-cog), longevity, performance enhancement and self-modification, Virtual Reality, "The Singularity," and other areas that both promise and threaten to radically alter our lives and our view of the world and ourselves.

More than that, h+ aims to reflect this newest edge culture by featuring creative expressions of humanity on a razor's edge where daily life and science fiction seem to be merging.

Good reading!

Mike Treder

Our Message for President Obama

CRN has submitted a statement to the Citizen's Briefing Book for U.S. President-elect Barack Obama. Our message is titled "Advanced Nanotechnology - What, When, and Why."

We urge you to click on the link above and VOTE UP our statement (assuming you agree with it, of course). The more points we acquire, the more likely the message is to be seen by the new President's staff.

UPDATE: The period of time for commenting and voting on briefing book statements has expired. Our submission received the largest number of points of any that primarily addressed nanotechnology, and we thank all those who voted for it.

Mike Treder

Essential Reading for the 21st Century

Looking for an interesting, serious, essential book to read for the new year?

You can't go wrong with Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic. It features a foreword from Martin Rees and includes a chapter on nanotechnology co-authored Chris Phoenix and yours truly.

Last July, Chris and I attended and spoke at a conference in Oxford, England, to kick off the book's promotion and to meet and discuss our concerns with many experts from various fields. Next week I'll write about the projected human death toll in the 21st century from catastrophic risks, as estimated informally by conference participants.

In October, 2008, CRN co-sponsored a one-day seminar on the same topic held at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California. One of the most interesting -- and probably the most disturbing -- presentation that day was from J. Storrs (Josh) Hall, who described what he calls "the weather machine."

Very powerful ideas for controlling weather and potentially controlling the world -- you can watch a video of Josh's talk here, read a transcript here, and read my comments on the concept here.

Both of these events, the first in England and the second in the US, were worth attending and full of fascinating and important information. I'm sorry to say, however, that although there was plenty of talk about risks, there was no real movement toward any next steps for evaluating and potentially averting them.

Maybe what's needed is for you to read the book, tell your friends about it, and create a groundswell for action!

Mike Treder

Memories Made by Nanotechnology and Poultry

Probably slow blogging over the next week or so, as I'll be traveling to visit family in Florida and Texas over the Thanksgiving holidays.

 In the meantime, feast on this tasty article from Michael Berger at Nanowerk titled "Next generation nanotechnology computer memory made of graphene."

UPDATE: Yet another juicy tidbit from Nanowerk, this time about robotic 'hands' built at the nanoscale.

Nanotechnology researchers are actively working on the beginnings of various nanorobotic systems that one day could lead to automated, assembly-line type nanofabrication processes . . . READ MORE

These 'nanogrippers' are not quite down to the level of atomic precision yet, but they're getting a lot closer.

Mike Treder

Catastrophic Seminar Gets Underway

We're at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California, on a gorgeous fall day, for our seminar on GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS: Building a Resilient Civilization.

The forecast here says: "Abundant sunshine. Near record high temperatures. High 82F. WSW winds shifting to N at 10 to 20 mph."

Inside the building, though, the forecast is not nearly so sunny. We're listening to experts in various fields tell us whether human civilization should prepare to experience existential outcomes in this century, or merely catastrophic outcomes -- or, perhaps, enough resiliency building that neither will occur.

So far, Anders Sandberg and Jamais Cascio have made presentations, and now Eliezer Yudkowsky has the floor. Because I'm a co-host of the event, and also a presenter this afternoon, I won't be able to live-blog the seminar; however, the whole thing is being videotaped and eventually will be posted online for free viewing.

Mike Treder

Friday Seminar on Risks and Resilience

There is still time to register for this important event!

CRN is proud to join with the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and the Lifeboat Foundation to present an exciting and informative one-day seminar at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, California.

Learn about threats to the future of humanity, natural and man-made, and the pro-active steps we can take to reduce these risks and build a more resilient civilization.

AGENDA
8:30am-9am	Registration, Coffee, Bagels
9am-9:15am	Welcome and Introductions
9:15am-10am	Anders Sandberg PhD, Oxford University “Global Catastrophic Risks: An Overview, and Caution about Risk Assessments”
10am-10:30am	Eliezer Yudkowsky, Research Associate. Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence “Cognitive Biases in the Assessment of Risk”
10:30am-11:00am	Feng Hsu PhD, Head, Integrated Risk Management, NASA “Critical Issues of Global Catastrophic Risks - a Worst Case Scenario Assessment”
11:00am-11:30am	Martin Hellman PhD, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence”
11:30am-12:00am	Bruce Damer, CEO, DigitalSpace & Director, Contact Consortium “Asteroids and Comets: Mitigating Impact Risks and Stepping Stones to a Sustainable Space Program”
12:00am-1:00pm	Pizza Lunch
1:00pm-1:30pm	Mike Treder, Executive Director, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology “Nanotechnology’s Global Risk and Promises of Resilience”
1:30pm-2:00pm	Tad Hogg PhD, Information Dynamics Laboratory, Hewlett Packard “Distributed Surveillance with MEMS or Nano-scale Sensors”
2:00pm-2:30pm	Kattesh V. Katti PhD, Director, Cancer Nanotechnology Platform, Professor of Radiology, University of Missouri “Green Nanotechnology: An Economic And Scientific Initiative For the Future Of Human Civilization”
2:30pm-3:00pm	Alan Goldstein PhD, CEO of Industrial Nanobiotechnology “The A-Prize: Tracking The Global Race To Break The Carbon Barrier”
3:00pm-3:15pm	Coffee Break
3:15pm-3:45pm	J. Storrs Hall PhD, author Beyond AI “The Weather Machine: Nano-enabled Climate Control for the Earth”
3:45pm-4:15pm	George Dvorsky, Director, IEET “Risks Posed by Political Extremism”
4:15pm-4:45pm	Jamais Cascio, IEET Fellow, and research affiliate, Institute for the Future “Building Civilizational Resilience”
4:45pm-5:15pm	James J. Hughes PhD, Exec. Director, Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies “Strengthening Transnational Governance to Mitigate Risks”

This event comes just ahead of -- and is organized with the cooperation of -- the futurist mega-gathering Convergence 08, November 15-16 at the same location.

Plan now to attend both!

CRN on the Discovery Channel!

Do you get the Discovery Channel? If so, tune in Monday night -- TONIGHT! -- at 9pm Eastern and Pacific Time (8pm Central, 7pm Mountain) for a special program called Apocalypse How. I was interviewed extensively for the show and was told that CRN's ideas are featured in it.

From the dawn of civilization, mankind has been preoccupied with its own demise. All of the world's major religions have their own theories about how and when the world will end. Apocalypse How asks : If the apocalypse is coming, what form will it take?

If you get a chance to watch the 2-hour show, please tell us what you think about it!

POST-SHOW UPDATE: Well, I was pleased to get as much screen time as I did, but I was not very happy the way my segment was edited. As you might expect, I spent most of the two hours that I was interviewed talking about realistic near-term risks of molecular manufacturing, concentrating mostly on a nanotech arms race.

At the end of that discussion they asked me to say something about grey goo. I did so, reluctantly, but I emphasized that the dangers from non-replicating nano-built weaponry are more imminent, more likely, and maybe more severe. Of course, when they cut the whole thing together, it gave the impression, I think, that grey goo is a far greater threat than CRN judges it to be.

Mike Treder

World Public Forum in Rhodes

After arriving in Rhodes, Greece, on Thursday, October 9, and settling into my hotel room (where I got a brief nap after a long overnight flight from New York), I was taken by bus with a few hundred other attendees to the historic and beautiful Grand Master's Palace.

There we were treated to a lavish celebration to open the 6th annual "Dialogue of Civilizations," organized by the World Public Forum.

Fancy ceremonies completed, we got down to work the next morning. We began with a plenary session in which all three co-founders of the WPF spoke, and then we broke up into several simultaneous panel sessions, each of which lasted a day and a half.

I was assigned to the Energy panel, which was subdivided into consecutive sections on Energy Security, Geo-Economics, and Nanotechnology. There were so many other interesting talks being given in other panel sessions that I was tempted to sneak away from where I was supposed to be and attend them. I didn't, but this is one of those times I really wished to be in several places at once.

My presentation, titled "From Top Down to Bottom Up -- In Technology, Economics, and Geopolitics," seemed to be well-received, but, as usual at these sort of events, it's the contacts and conversations that occur between sessions in the halls that often turn out to be the most productive and valuable. I look forward to continuing and expanding on many of the new relationships I began in Rhodes on behalf of CRN.

On the final day, Sunday, October 12, we gathered again for another plenary session. There, representatives from each of the several panel sessions gave reports on what was covered in their areas, and what plans or recommendations they may have for going forward.

These were the panels that reported:

• International Migration
• Education
• Religious Cooperation
• Economic Crisis
• Social Stability & Political Structures
• Energy

I'll offer comments on reports from three of the panels:

1. Social Stability & Political Structures - A striking conclusion from this group was that "no dialogue between civilizations is possible until asymmetries of socioeconomic conditions [between North and South] are corrected." To me, this seems like both a tall order and an intransigent position, but I'm sure it's important for us in the developed world to recognize how condescending we often may appear to those who are not so fortunate.


2. Economic Crisis - Conclusions from this group (which included a number of leading economists from all over the world) comprised a gloomy set of best and worst case scenarios. Best case is that we will sink into the worst recession since the 1930s, with an average of 8-12% unemployment in developed countries and -3% annual GDPs. Worst case is a second great depression with unemployment approaching 20% in developed countries and -10% GDPs. Gulp.


3. Energy - Among the conclusions and recommendations were these: a) future conflict prevention requires a world structure for non-fossil-fuel energy generation; b) greatly expanded research and development for sustainable alternative energy is needed under the auspices of the United Nations; and c) a cooperative international agreement for development of advanced nanotechnology should be pursued to avoid dangerous competition (read "arms race") and to identify and satisfy new market opportunities.

It probably is not surprising but should be noted that nearly all the panels reported that their discussions were heavily influenced by the current economic crisis. In general, there was much criticism of neoliberalism, and even -- from some of the Russians -- a sense of triumphalism over the apparent failure of U.S. and Western "hegemonic" capitalism. I found that attitude a bit ironic, though, considering that Russia has moved heavily toward its own unfettered version of free-market capitalism. Ah, well...

One final conclusion of my own is that there was too little attention paid to the looming disasters of global warming and climate chaos. All our dialogue over other admittedly important issues may fade into the background when we are confronted with the cataclysm we have triggered and failed to avert.

On that note, let me close with a quote from another participant, Yuri Kanner, Chairman of the European Jewish Forum:

If history teaches us anything, it is that it does not teach us anything.

Mike Treder