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« Fast Takeoff: Errors, part 2 | Main | Cool Nanoscale Stuff »

April 02, 2009

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todd andersen

“Even a primitive molecular manufacturing system has the potential for substantial economic impact on a rapid time scale”. I agree if we assume a mass doubling every 2 hours and starting with a complete MM device perhaps 2’ by 2’ something that would fit nicely on a Wal-Mart shelf. We are looking at world wide availability of the unit with in 3 days given FedEx will transport the unit.
Everyone on the planet could have access within a few more days. As a side thought I would like to be on the team that plans the rollout. There are many many questions as to the capabilities of the “black box” MM device.
The lead time spoken of above should allow us the U.K. the Chinese and India as well as a hand full of countries to be close. We can hope the CIA dose a terrible job of hiding the technology and the big world players will know allot a bought the thing before we have it, assuming “we the U.S. “have it first. My hope is this info will soften the blow and not scare the hell out of everyone else.
I believe the list of useful products will define the impact on the world economy. For instance if a complete working car is on the list the first day, well then the economy is in trouble. It’s more likely the first box will build lots of, little things, useful stuff, but not the big stuff cars plains and trains.
This should again give some time for users, sorry people, to get used to having the thing around. I would say if on opening day we have 5% unemployment then we can expect the number to slowly go up as industries fail do to competition from the box. We have talked a bought this before and the governments have options to deal with this simply extending unemployment insurance payments for 2 years should give plenty of time for the transitions from a economy of scarcity to the economy of plenty.
I think if we get through the first 2 winters and we are all still eating we are good. I have many concerns for the power grid and of the food supply not so much the availability but who is going to maintain and move power and who is going to maintain and move food.


Anyway just some thoughts


Todd

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