Tom Craver has an interesting idea: a Wiki model of the future.
Such models have equations and parameters, and (for example) simulate what will happen to the economy in a year or two. The Club of Rome built such a model, and their model has been very influential.
So, is it possible to build an open-source model? One in which anyone can contribute a bit of insight or knowledge, and the system processes all the bits until it comes out with a useful set of projections about the future?
CRN has engaged in online collaborative projects before, including our groundbreaking scenario project. And a model of the future would certainly be useful to us.
Of course, it wouldn't be just one model. A useful system would run lots of projections using different variants of the model, and then aggregate the projections, looking for patterns in the relation between assumptions and outcomes. This would take a lot of computer power, and could be done on an @home type platform.
The information input into the scenario process would benefit from semi-automated Delphi-like feedback. Different versions of a piece of data would be rated according to how they matched opinions from other users, as well as what effect they had on the model.
Does anyone here know enough about mathematical modeling of the future to say whether this idea might be worth implementing?