Underrating the Mid-Range

You've probably heard the dictum that most people expect too much change in the short term and too little change in the long term. That has been true generally, I think, and it may be why we hear complaints about 'No flying cars yet!' and so on.

But if too many people are looking for short term exaggerated change, and if they aren't fully comprehending the extreme changes that can occur over the long term, I'm also concerned that the middle range is badly underrated and could catch us by surprise.

Let's call the short term from one to five years. It's almost certain we won't have flying cars by then, or a colony on Mars, or a pill we can take to cure all diseases. Of course, we might be well on the way to having online access everywhere all the time, and that could be quite useful, but it's unlikely that people will see anything within the next five years that will knock their socks off.

How about the long term? Let's call that from 50 to 100 years. How much technological, social, and political change should we expect to see in that time frame? Given the vast differences in the world today -- in all three of those realms -- as compared to the lives of people from early in the last century, it seems beyond argument that enormous changes are in store. 

By the end of this century, if not before, many millions or even billions of people will spend much of their lives in nearly indistinguishable virtual realities. Fully developed biotechnology and genetic engineering will allow the creation of tailored plants, animals, chimeras, and whole biomes. Advanced nanotechnology, well beyond early generation molecular manufacturing, will completely revolutionize our infrastructures for living, working, traveling, and creating energy on earth and in space. 

All of that is dependent, however, on our ability to get safely past the formidable barrier of the mid-range.

What happens during the period from five to twenty years from now is very likely to determine whether the remainder of this century will be one of unparalleled abundance, of devastating war and destruction, of warming-induced ecological collapse and mass deaths, or perhaps some miserable but survivable combination thereof.

We can illustrate the challenge with this simple chart where we see an early period, the near-term, with somewhat evenly matched levels of existential danger and our capacities to adequately manage and avert the worst of those dangers. So far, so good.

 

Over the long term, our human (and posthuman?) civilizations may be able to acquire enough capacity from growth of technological aids and scientific know-how that we can dependably stay ahead of the greatest dangers.

But it is in that mid-range period, as we rapidly develop powerful new technologies, and as we have to grapple simultaneously with huge new problems -- caused by sea level rise, species depletion, mass human refugee migrations, crop failures and famines, state failures, pandemics, and more -- that is when we will reach the test of whether we are fit enough, mature enough, and wise enough to make the right decisions.

And the time to begin making those decisions is now, not when the barrage of problems is upon us, but today.

A good start would be to make a thorough examination of all the issues raised by exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing. CRN urges every large corporation, every big NGO, and every government body to undertake their own evaluation of the mid-term risks and rewards they may face, especially in the context of advanced nanotechnology, which will have deep and lasting effects on all of us. 

Mike Treder

Comments

[Brian Wang]

what does one mean by a flying car ?

Roadable plane for $150,000 is here.

The real market for these vehicles is solidly in the hundreds of units per year. So they are not replacing cars but light sport aircraft. They are toys for the wealthy. This is an airplane first, and not a replacement for anybody's car.

There is a market for general aviation, so the question is what can we do to make it better, to make it safer. And I believe we're doing a lot to make it safer.

Affordable electric planes are getting rolled out

So could we have plane/cars that are affordable on a cost and operating basis that could be used for commuting ? Yes

They would likely still need some kind of aviation license.

Could something break through that would greatly expand the numbers and frequency of light plane flights. 200,000 light planes now.

Air taxi services are being rolled out now between some small airports in Florida and other states. Dayjet and others.

Can we have safe robotic point to point GPS flight. Technical possible with UAVs. Issues are insurance and other regulatory issues. Plus a revamped GPS flight control system for large and small planes.

Cheap all electric planes or hybrids, with robotic flight and flight control for intercity and incity flight and commuting. That could happen and it could have social benefits. Could eventually reduce road dependence. Could use less oil. Better for environment. Could be faster and safer than cars. Could be rolled out as fast as electric and hybrid cars. Insurance hurdle and the credibility hurdle for people.

[Brian Wang]

The future you want. You have to want it and a lot of people have to work to make it happen. There needs to be a good plan.

[ADBatstone]

This means that anyone alive today won’t make it to the Singularity and that Kurzweil’s theories of Accelerating Returns are bunk.

Our grandchildren will be the first to have access to radical life extension, while our generation dies off.

[ADBatstone]

There won't be a Technological Singularity by 2050. I wish there was.

[Brian Wang]

Actually by the you in the "the future you want", I was referring to if anyone wants to ensure a positively transformed future then it requires a lot of work. A Technological Singularity can happen and it can happen sooner if there is a good plan for achieving it.

Tensilica processors can be used to make an affordable and energy efficient exaflop computer by 2015. A million PCs with next years GPGPUs could provide a SETI@Home style collectively usable exaflop.

Radical life extension can happen as well. Within 5 years the sirtuin treatments will be commonly available and provide 3-13 years of life extension depending upon the person. Regular 0.2 year per year life extension is happening. There is significant and growing funding of SENS. Several mitochondria enhancing treatments are coming as well as cellular rejuvenation and stem cell and gene therapy treatments.

As I mentioned a good plan is important. A bad plan is tossing up ones hands and saying it won't happen until 2050 and only our grandchildren will have it. That is the same kind of bad plan that is being used for social security. "this plan is poorly funded, let us not do anything and let a later generation clean this up."

[gman]

Actually I don't know where Kurzweil thinks that there's an acceleration of innovation, when in fact there's a decline in the past 20-30 years. Around 2006 the top innovation for that year was the iPhone! A cell phone was the best innovation our scientists and engineers could come up with in a year.
But I don't blame business, it's really not them thats the issue. it's the law system, it's way to easy to sue now. No one's going to make a flying car that has the remotest chance of falling from the sky if it lost power. The law suite would put any company out of business.it's the liability laws that prevent big science from being done today.

[Jay]

"Around 2006 the top innovation for that year was the iPhone!"

@gman:

That's *your* opinion.

If I browse the 2006 archives on my own website, I can come up with some stuff one helluva lot cooler than the friggin' iPhone.

[gman]

Not mine, Time Magazine's.

http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1677329_1678542,00.html

I could get, now come up with something, like metamaterials to allow the possibility of an invisibility cloak. Thats something novel, relatively speaking, it's one of just a possible handful of true novelty and realitvely new.