In our nanotechnology scenario #8, "Newshound Notebook," composed by members of the CRN Task Force, we write:
24 Jun 2013 - China’s economic growth continues to astound. I just checked with the Hypernet for earlier forecasts, and it turns out that a few years ago (in 2007), people were predicting that China would exceed the U.S. as the world’s #1 economy by around 2025. Now, the common wisdom is that it will happen no later than 2018. Amazing!
Note that this was prepared well before the current economic crisis, which has the U.S. economy taking a serious hit.
However, Stephen Aguilar-Millan, our colleague who writes The Futurist -- a must-read blog for anyone looking ahead -- has performed an interesting analysis that concludes it is highly unlikely for China to surpass the U.S. in GDP at any time before the mid-2020s.
I encourage you to read Stephen's entire article and review his statistics; both very enlightening. He concludes:
We can see that the forecast of 2015 as the point where China’s GDP overtakes America’s GDP is nothing more than a wild dream.