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« Thought for a New Year | Main | Newshound Notebook »

December 31, 2007

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Hal

I see that you have, as of three days ago, removed the claim that MNT was "likely" by 2015 from your timeline page, http://www.crnano.org/timeline.htm . I am glad that you keep a record of such changes but I do think that this deserved a bit more attention.

I have had a number of debates with CRN members (particularly Chris Phoenix) over the years in which I complained about their over-aggressive predictions. It is good to see that CRN is now characterizing its timeline as being more a cautionary scenario than an actual prediction, but frankly I don't think this is how it was being presented in the past.

If so, I would like to see CRN more plainly admit that it is becoming more pessimistic about the possibility for accelerated That might help to inform the larger nanotech-enthusiast community about diminished prospects for near-term development of this technology.

Mike Treder, CRN

Hal, thanks for your comment. I think the essay from Jamais addresses all the issues you raised. But I'll reiterate that CRN never has suggested or even implied that the timelines we offer were intended as predictions.

We've consistently emphasized that we are urging people to get prepared for the earliest plausible development of nanofactory technology; and if it doesn't turn out to happen as fast as we think it might, that's fine (although the benefits therefore will be slower in coming).

It's like going to the airport to catch a plane -- if you're an hour too early, you might have to sit around and wait a while, feeling annoyed, but if you're one minute late, it's a big problem. So, let's be prudent and plan ahead.

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