Responsible Nanotechnology

Preparation, Not Prediction

In this month's C-R-Newsletter, our feature essay is by Jamais Cascio, CRN's Director of Impacts Analysis. Instead of excerpting the essay, as is our usual custom, we're going to post the whole thing here, because it is an important restatement of CRN's purpose...

How soon could molecular manufacturing (MM) arrive? It's an important question, and one that the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology takes seriously. In our recently released series of scenarios for the emergence of molecular manufacturing, we talk about MM appearing by late in the next decade; on the CRN main website, we describe MM as being plausible by as early as 2015. If you follow the broader conversation online and in the technical media about molecular manufacturing, however, you might argue that such timelines are quite aggressive, and not at all the consensus.

You'd be right.

CRN doesn't talk about the possible emergence of molecular manufacturing by 2015-2020 because we think that this timeline is necessarily the most realistic forecast. Instead, we use that timeline because the purpose of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology is not prediction, but preparation.

Thought for a New Year

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

How we spend our days is, of course, how we spend our lives.

— Annie Dillard

Tag: quotes

C-R-Newsletter #60

The latest edition of the C-R-Newsletter has been posted on our main website.

CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE:

Our Fifth Anniversary
CRN Scenarios Published
Roadmap Now Available
IEEE Urges MM Funding
The Age of Nanotechnology
Creating Nanotech Communities
Ranking the Risks
Feature Essay: Restating CRN’s Purpose

Read the whole newsletter here — and sign up for a free subscription here.

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology future

A Goal Postponed

Note: These scenarios are not predictions, and do not represent outcomes desired by the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology. CRN intends the scenarios to provide a springboard for discussion of molecular manufacturing policies and societal responses. While each scenario can be understood individually, the real value of the process comes from the comparison of multiple scenarios. A strategic response that appears robust in one scenario may be dangerous in another; an organization, community, or polity using these scenarios to consider how to handle the emergence of molecular manufacturing should strive for responses that are viable across multiple scenarios. Finally, the numbering of the scenarios has nothing to do with importance or priority -- it's a simple reflection of the order in which they were completed.

Scenario #5: A Goal Postponed

The middle of the first decade of the millennium saw a slow shift toward acceptance of molecular manufacturing. Not only its proponents, but unaffiliated scientists as well, began to acknowledge that the idea of molecular machines building molecular machines might be worth pursuing. The supporters of the approach began to draw a cautious breath of relief. By 2007, at least one group (the Nanofactory Collaboration) was working toward atom-by-atom fabrication of diamond, a company with a history of successful lab research (Zyvex) was working toward atomically precise silicon shapes, and DNA technology was making great strides forward.

Few observers close to the field expected molecular manufacturing to be a victim of its own success. In hindsight, the irony was inescapable and almost predictable: each partial success and modest step forward siphoned off more and more interest from the ultimate goal of exponential nanoscale manufacturing using molecular tools.

It started with Zyvex LLC's announcement in 2011 that their Atomically Precise Manufacturing project had succeeded in building two-dimensional structures on a silicon surface with every atom exactly where it was planned to be. This was rightly seen as a major accomplishment: in precision and throughput, it went well beyond the 1994 laboratory demonstrations of the Aono group. Furthermore, Zyvex announced that three-dimensional structures, perhaps including layers of diverse materials, were in the works. Several spinoff technologies, including biomedical sensors and fast electronic circuits, were quickly pursued.

Marx Reconsidered

We're pleased to feature a guest article today from best-selling author (and CRN Task Force member) David Brin. He writes:

Over on the Lifeboat Foundation discussion list, Ben Goertzel, a rising star in artificial intelligence theory, recently expressed skepticism that we could keep maintaining a "modern large-scale capitalist representative democracy cum welfare state cum corporate oligopoly" for much longer.

Something would have to give, Ben thought. Indeed, this complex civilization we live in does seem to be under a lot of stress, right now.

Following are some of my thoughts on the topic...

Yin & Yang in Modern China

It's not often we get such stark, compelling, evocative descriptions of the high and low, the light and dark, the yin and the yang -- but here, from two unlikely sources, we're given powerful glimpses inside modern China, in all its dynamism and desperation.

What is it like to be part of the noveau riche in China, to experience the surge of wealth and power, to ride the wave of revolutionary capitalism? David Brooks of the New York Times, in a scintillating piece of Op-Ed journalism, gives us one answer.

On the other side, what it is like to be caught in the backwater eddies of China's social and economic tumult, dragged down by an irresistible undertow of crime, perversity, and unrelenting squalor? For that, we'll look to the cinema.

Writing from Shanghai, Brooks says:

Whether you are in business or government, you will be members of the same corpocracy. In the West, there are tensions between government and business elites. In China, these elites are part of the same social web, cooperating for mutual enrichment.

Your life is governed by the rules of the corpocracy. Teamwork is highly valued. There are no real ideological rivalries, but different social networks compete for power and wealth. And the system does reward talent. The wonderfully named Organization Department selects people who have proven their administrative competence. You work hard. You help administer provinces. You serve as an executive at state-owned enterprises in steel and communications. You rise quickly.

When you talk to Americans, you find that they have all these weird notions about Chinese communism. You try to tell them that China isn’t a communist country anymore. It’s got a different system: meritocratic paternalism. You joke: Imagine the Ivy League taking over the shell of the Communist Party and deciding not to change the name. Imagine the Harvard Alumni Association with an army.

This is a government of talents, you tell your American friends. It rules society the way a wise father rules the family. There is some consultation with citizens, but mostly members of the guardian class decide for themselves what will serve the greater good.

The meritocratic corpocracy absorbs rival power bases. Once it seemed that economic growth would create an independent middle class, but now it is clear that the affluent parts of society have been assimilated into the state/enterprise establishment. Once there were students lobbying for democracy, but now they are content with economic freedom and opportunity.

READ THE WHOLE THING...

Meanwhile, for those millions and millions who are not part of the elite, nor even in the rising middle class, what is life like?

For that we turn to Yang Li, creator of a gripping, disturbing, award-winning, semi-documentary film made illegally inside China in 2003. Set within the hardscrabble makeshift coal-mining industry, it's called Mang jing, also known as Blind Shaft, and it follows the "fortunes" of two fictional but eminently believable con men and a naive youth that they encounter.

I saw the movie recently on CUNY-TV in New York, and it's definitely worth seeking out. Among many unforgettable scenes and great lines, this one best captures the film's bleak message: "China has a shortage of everything but people."

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics blog

... And Not a Drop to Drink

Note: These scenarios are not predictions, and do not represent outcomes desired by the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology. CRN intends the scenarios to provide a springboard for discussion of molecular manufacturing policies and societal responses. While each scenario can be understood individually, the real value of the process comes from the comparison of multiple scenarios. A strategic response that appears robust in one scenario may be dangerous in another; an organization, community, or polity using these scenarios to consider how to handle the emergence of molecular manufacturing should strive for responses that are viable across multiple scenarios. Finally, the numbering of the scenarios has nothing to do with importance or priority -- it's a simple reflection of the order in which they were completed.

Scenario #5: ... And Not a Drop to Drink

Water is crucial to the tiny island nation of Singapore. Surrounded by the salty sea, they get 50 percent of their potable water from rainfall and must import the other 50 percent. As of 2007, Singapore had a water purchase agreement with Malaysia, acquiring fully half of their nation's water supply through a dual pipeline running across the Straits of Johor. The Malaysia-Singapore agreement was due to run out in 2011, however, and an intractable disagreement over the price of water had caused negotiations to stall.

In an effort to increase water supply, catchments, recycling, and desalination projects had been in the works in Singapore since the early ‘00s, along with aggressive water conservation practices. Aiming for water self-sufficiency, they opened their first desalination plant in 2005. At the time, experts suggested that Singapore could become the world's leading hub for water recycling and desalination technologies and could export this technology widely, based on their previous success with economic initiatives in science and technology.

In 2009, terrorist attacks severely damaged the massive Malaysia-Singapore water pipelines. Among the top suspects was Jemaah Islamiyah, a group of Southeast Asian Islamic Jihadists based in Indonesia but with cells in Malaysia. They had a history of attempted attacks on Singapore, but had been successfully foiled before. The attack this time was on the Malaysian end of the pipeline and Singapore believed that Malaysia, which is largely Islamic, had not tried hard enough to prevent it. Malaysia was known to be unhappy about Singapore’s close political and economic ties to the U.S., and Singapore also suspected that allowing the pipeline damage was a convenient tactic by Malaysia to leverage the water renegotiations. Neither Malaysia nor Singapore were eager to pay for rebuilding the pipeline, and their relationship became increasingly difficult and antagonistic; in the end, no new agreement was reached.

Draconian water conservation efforts were initiated in Singapore starting in early 2010, and the compliant populace went along. Singapore was able to purchase some water from other neighbors such as Indonesia, but they remained desperate for an independent water supply. This critical shortage provided the impetus for considerable investment of money and energy over the next few years. A well-funded joint government-commercial effort drew experts from around the world and invested heavily in an R&D infrastructure, developing nanotechnologies to produce high-volume, high-efficiency water filtration systems suitable for recycling. A small but significant fraction of this effort was aimed at a general-purpose molecular manufacturing capability.

Peace on Earth

The Fermi Death Sentence

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the Fermi Paradox is what it suggests for the future of our human civilization. Namely, that we have no future beyond earthly confinement and, quite possibly, extinction. Could advanced nanotechnology play a role in preventing that extinction? Or, more darkly, is it destined to be instrumental in carrying out humanity's unavoidable death sentence?

That's the abstract of CRN's latest column for the popular Nanotechnology Now web portal. We hope you'll read all our columns, offer feedback, and tell others about them too.

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Wisdom in Perspective

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

We are made wise not by the recollection of our past, but by the responsibility for our future.

— George Bernard Shaw

Tag: quotes