An Epic Pollution Crisis

In case you didn't see it, this New York Times special series on China's "epic pollution crisis" is worth a look:

Many questions of interest to CRN are raised by this worsening crisis:

1. Can China's historically unprecedented rate of industrial and economic growth continue without causing catastrophic ecological damage?
2. Will China's population continue to accept such severe water and air pollution without demanding change?
3. If Chinese citizens do demand change, how will the authoritarian government react?
4. Will China, seeing the problem, decide to invest heavily in molecular manufacturing, betting that this new technology could provide clean energy, clean manufacturing, environmental remediation, and continued economic growth?

Mike Treder

Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog

Comments

[Brian Wang]

There are anti-pollution demonstrations in China.
http://socialistworld.net/eng/2007/06/06china.html

Even back in 1994 and before the chinese pollution issue was an issue
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,982027-3,00.html

china is adding the equivalent of the Three Gorges dam (18GW) of hydro power each year from now until 2020. China will be adding a lot nuclear power. China will also be building solar and wind power. China would have about 35% power from non-fossil fuel sources in 2020. 270GW Hydro, 40GW nuclear, 123GW from renewables if targets are reached. 42% of power would be from non-coal sources if natural gas usage is increased as projected. the dammed rivers also allow more efficient 10,000 ton barges to be used to move freight.

http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/05/beyond-three-gorges-dam-more-hydro.html

China is also getting a lot of electric bicycles and scooters. 60 million total this year going to 350 million in about 5 years. So the 450 million cyclist will mostly stay with clean powered versions of cycles. There is also a large buildout of rail and public transit.

http://advancednano.blogspot.com/2007/08/clean-vehicles-in-india-and-china-key.html

There is a program to shutdown the dirtiest coal plants. the smallest plants are the dirtiest. They are being replaced with bigger coal plants which is not ideal but a modern coal plant with affordable pollution control would reduce the deadliest pollution. China's deaths from coal air pollution could come down to levels proportional to the USA's current 30,000 per year. Which would be about 130,000 per year for China given the population difference. If the USAs likely 2020 future coal pollution control standards are used then the USA could drop to 15000 coal deaths per year and if China met those levels they would have 65,000 deaths per year. China's coal problems are similar to what the USA and the UK had in the 1940s and 1950s.

The shutdown of small dirty coal plants is on track.
http://pepei.pennnet.com/display_article/303501/6/ARTCL/Display/none/China-on-track-to-hit-its-2007-target-for-closing-down-small-thermal-plants/

http://english.gov.cn/2007-08/16/content_718336.htm

I think China can get to close current US standards for electrical generation (about 58% coal) by 2020 and have that coal as clean as current US coal. This is still not great but it will be on track to being manageable. The higher amount of electrical vehicle usage and public transit should put China onto a more European path to transportation. Fortunately it will be impossible for China to build enough roads and parking to support a US style car culture. Electric scooters and bikes will dominate and I expect the roads will look more like Taipei. 10 scooters to every car and the scooters will be electric.

I expect China is and will invest in MM. When it arrives they will certainly roll it out to help the environment and the economy