Today I'm traveling to Port Elgin, Ontario, to be the keynote speaker at the Canadian Auto Workers New Technology Conference. My talk is titled "Disruptive Abundance: The Future of Nanotechnology." Here is the abstract:
Predictions for the future of nanotechnology range from the mundane, to the revolutionary, to the catastrophic. In reality, you should expect mostly the first over the next few years, a lot of the second in the next decade or two, and hopefully none of the last — although we must take that possibility seriously.
For people in skilled trades, especially manufacturing, most of the news may not be good. In early years, fast-moving developments in techniques for exponential manufacturing — machines that can automatically produce copies of their components or even themselves — will result in an accelerating shift toward automation of manufacturing processes. A good example of this is printable electronics, which will be discussed.
But over the longer term, the next 10 to 15 years, a real revolution in manufacturing is quite likely. In fact, our research suggests that trends in automation and robotics will continue to the point where new cars could just rise out of the floor — and in the showroom, not the factory.
Impacts of this manufacturing revolution will not be limited to workers and their families. Nanotechnology is sometimes called “the next Industrial Revolution,” and with good reason. Fourth generation nanotechnology — molecular manufacturing — will radically transform the world, and the people, of the 21st century. Whether that transformation will be peaceful and beneficial or horrendously destructive is unknown. The task now, for all of us, is to explore and understand the environmental, humanitarian, economic, military, political, social, medical, and ethical implications of molecular manufacturing, and to prepare wise, comprehensive, and balanced plans for responsible use of this transformative technology. Although nanotechnology carries tremendous promise, unwise or malicious use could seriously threaten the survival of the human race.
Great abundance is just around the corner. And so are great risks. Imagine all the changes of the last 200 years — from steam engines to steel mills, from railroads to interstate highways (and the cars you produce that drive on them), and from plastics to personal computers to the World Wide Web, one technology revolution after another has utterly transformed Western living. Now imagine that same amount of change compressed into the span of only a few years. That is a recipe for disruption, and possibly for disaster.
Consider the economic and social consequences of replacing whole industries; the military and geopolitical consequences of inexpensive, rapid development of powerful new weapons systems; the environmental consequences of a technology that will allow, for the first time, planet-scale engineering; and the medical and ethical consequences of extremely extended human healthspans and radically expanded human capacities.
An ironic curse/blessing says, May you live in interesting times. We do, and the times are about to get even more interesting. This talk will describe that future and its effects on all of us: from the mundane, to the revolutionary, and, possibly, the catastrophic.
A reminder here that I also will be speaking in late July at WorldFuture 2007, the annual conference of the World Future Society, being held this year in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The event is July 29-31, and my talk is on Monday, July 30, from 11:00 am to 12:00 noon.
Finally, watch this space for an exciting announcement coming soon about a nanotech conference this September in Arizona. It should be big news!
Mike Treder
Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog
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