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« March 5, 2006 - March 11, 2006 | Main | March 19, 2006 - March 25, 2006 »

March 18, 2006

Tone, Emotion, and Flaming

How likely are you to accurately determine the tone of any email message you receive?

According to recent research published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, your odds are only about 50-50. The study also shows that people think they've correctly interpreted the tone of e-mails they receive 90% of the time.

"That's how flame wars get started," says psychologist Nicholas Epley of the University of Chicago, who conducted the research with Justin Kruger of New York University. "People in our study were convinced they've accurately understood the tone of an e-mail message when in fact their odds are no better than chance," says Epley. . .

Those who sent the messages predicted that nearly 80 percent of the time their partners would correctly interpret the tone. In fact the recipients got it right just over 50 percent of the time.

"People often think the tone or emotion in their messages is obvious because they 'hear' the tone they intend in their head as they write," Epley explains.

At the same time, those reading messages unconsciously interpret them based on their current mood, stereotypes and expectations. Despite this, the research subjects thought they accurately interpreted the messages nine out of 10 times.

That's a huge discrepancy. But where does it come from?

The reason for this is egocentrism, or the difficulty some people have detaching themselves from their own perspective, says Epley. In other words, people aren't that good at imagining how a message might be understood from another person's perspective.

I'm sure that's true, but I think there's more to it than that.

A great deal of communication is non-verbal. According to a famous study (Mehrabian and Ferris, Journal of Consulting Psychology 31, 1967):

  • 38% of communication is inflection and tone of voice
  • 55% is facial expression
  • 7% is based on what you actually say

These often-quoted findings are based on a situation in which a listener is analyzing a speaker's general attitude (positive, negative, or neutral) when there is no prior acquaintance and no prior context for their discussion. If those conditions are not the case (i.e., there is prior context or acquaintance), then the percent communicated by what you actually say will be somewhat higher.

Humans evolved to read cues other than words in order to ascertain meaning -- it was a matter of survival. But what we're dealing with here is email, in which there is no facial expression to see, and no tone of voice or inflection to hear. Even if we sometimes try to make up for these shortcomings with emoticons or or other textual tricks (bold, italics, CAPS, *stars*, etc.), it's still a very long way from being able to look at a speaker's face, hear her voice, or read body language.

Our brains are not wired (yet) to transmit or receive nonverbal communication in text-only communication. We think we ought to be able to understand what someone is saying just from the words they use, but we're wrong.

So, what happens? We get an email from someone, and we assume we know how to read between the lines and understand the intended tone. However, as shown above, we're just as likely to be wrong as right.

In face-to-face communication, prior acquaintance or prior context may improve the ability to infer an unspoken attitude, but I suspect the opposite is true with email. It seems logical that misinterpretation may happen even more often when we are acquainted with the writer or we do have context -- because then we'd be more apt to assume we know what's intended.

Obviously, this discussion has no direct bearing on nanotechnology, but it is quite relevant to the social exchanges that take place in blogging and commenting. I'm suggesting that we all (including me) should be cautious about making assumptions or jumping to conclusions. Smiley

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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March 17, 2006

Radio Show Today ++

WNYC - The Leonard Lopate Show - Friday, March 17

Please Explain: Nanotechnology

On this week's Please Explain, we'll learn about nanotechnology: technology on the scale of atoms and molecules that's measured in nanometers (which equal a millionth of a millimeter). Mike Treder, Executive Director of the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology and Sanjiv Sam Gambhir, M.D., Ph.D., Division Chief of Nuclear Medicine at Stanford University's School of Medicine, tell us how nanoscience could change the future of manufacturing.

REPORT (4:00 P.M. EST): I thought the show was very successful, and I've been getting a lot of good feedback. Dr. Sanjiv Sam Gambhir from Stanford (the other guest) was extremely informative, plus he reinforced CRN's message that molecular manufacturing is coming and that it will be revolutionary.

My biggest complaint is that the time went by too fast! Of course, I warned the show's producers in advance that 40 minutes was barely enough time to get started in talking about nanotech.

If you didn't get to hear the show live today, you can still LISTEN ONLINE -- either through streaming audio or MP3 download.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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2006 Guardian Award Winners

An announcement from the Lifeboat Foundation (Note: I'm on their Board of Scientific Advisors):

The Lifeboat Foundation Guardian Award is annually bestowed upon revered scientists or public figures who have heralded the coming of a future fraught with danger and encouraged provision against its perils. This year's recipients are Robert A. Freitas Jr. and Bill Joy, who have both been proposing solutions to the dangers of advanced technology since 2000, two years before the formation of the Lifeboat Foundation.


Freitas_1Robert A. Freitas Jr. is a Lifeboat Foundation Scientific Advisory Board member and a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing. He is author of the Nanomedicine book series, the first book-length technical treatment of the medical implications of molecular nanotechnology. Volume I: Basic Capabilities, was published by Landes Bioscience in October 1999; Volume IIA: Biocompatibility, was published by Landes Bioscience in October 2003.

In 2004, he coauthored Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines with Ralph C. Merkle. While others were debating whether self-replicating nanotechnology was possible, Rob took action and described the 137-dimensional map of the replicator design space which suggests a large number of ways that replicators can be preemptively disabled or rendered incrementally safer. This map for defense is the first list of its type that has ever been compiled, and it is very extensive. Recommendations for desired/undesired replicator characteristics (relative to safety) drawn from this list could be used in a very specific regulatory regime for machine replicators.

His upcoming "Molecular Manufacturing: Too Dangerous to Allow?" which will be published in the journal Nanotechnology Perceptions in March 2006 and his upcoming "What Price Freedom?" in the same journal in May 2006 discuss the implications of a future with advanced nanotechnology. [Both essays were written by Rob as a member of the CRN Global Task Force.]

Rob advocates "An immediate international moratorium, if not outright ban, on all artificial life experiments implemented as nonbiological hardware. In this context, 'artificial life' is defined as autonomous foraging replicators, excluding purely biological implementations (already covered by NIH guidelines tacitly accepted worldwide) and also excluding software simulations which are essential preparatory work and should continue. Alternative 'inherently safe' replication strategies such as the broadcast architecture are already well-known."


JoyBill Joy joined the venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers (KPCB) as Partner in January 2005. One of Silicon Valley's best-known VC firms, KPCB was an early investor in Amazon.com, America Online, Compaq, Electronic Arts, Genentech, Google, Lotus Development, and Sun Microsystems.

Bill was Cofounder and Chief Scientist of Sun Microsystems. He led Sun's technical strategy from the founding of the company in 1982 until September, 2003. While at Sun, he was a key designer of Sun technologies, including Solaris, SPARC, chip architectures and pipelines, and Java. In 1995 he installed the first city-wide WiFi network. He has more than 40 patents issued or in progress.

Before cofounding Sun, Bill designed and wrote Berkeley UNIX, the first open source operating system with built-in TCP/IP, making it the backbone of the Internet. His many contributions were recognized in a Fortune cover story which called him the "Edison of the Internet".

In 2000, he wrote "Why the future doesn't need us: Our most powerful 21st-century technologies — robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech — are threatening to make humans an endangered species" in Wired magazine. This well publicized article included quotes such as "I think it is no exaggeration to say we are on the cusp of the further perfection of extreme evil, an evil whose possibility spreads well beyond that which weapons of mass destruction bequeathed to the nation-states, on to a surprising and terrible empowerment of extreme individuals.", "An immediate consequence of the Faustian bargain in obtaining the great power of nanotechnology is that we run a grave risk — the risk that we might destroy the biosphere on which all life depends." and "...if our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of our technological development, shouldn't we proceed with great caution?"

In 2003, he wrote "Hope Is a Lousy Defense" in Wired magazine. In 2005, he and 2005 Guardian Award winner Ray Kurzweil wrote the editorial "Recipe for Destruction" in the New York Times in which they argued against publishing the recipe for the 1918 influenza virus.

In 2006, while others were debating whether a bird flu pandemic or other biological disaster was likely, Bill took action and helped launch a $200 million fund directed at developing defenses against biological viruses. The goal of the KPCB Pandemic and Bio Defense Fund is to accelerate innovations for worldwide pandemic preparedness and global health over the next three years, with a focus on surveillance and detection, diagnostics, vaccines and drugs. He also advised on Lifeboat Foundation's web design in 2006.


CRN congratulates Rob and Bill for their strong voices and their many accomplishments. Whether or not we always agree with them, we appreciate their passionate concern for the future of humanity.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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March 16, 2006

CRN Goes on the Radio

Radio_1
For listeners in the New York City area, I will be a guest on the "Leonard Lopate Show" tomorrow on WNYC, the most listened-to public radio station in the United States.

On the regular Friday segment called "Please Explain" the topic tomorrow (March 17) is nanotechnology. I will be on the air from 1:20 until 2:00 PM, Eastern time.

Listen on FM 93.9 or AM 820 in the New York metropolitan area -- or listen online from anywhere!

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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March 15, 2006

Poll Results on Tech Priorities

Yesterday we posed this question: Which of the following would you most like to see accomplished through the development of emerging technologies?

Zogby International, an opinion research firm, polled more than 13,400 US citizens, and here is what they said:

- An end to world hunger: 18.2%

- An end to disease: 20.5%

- Extended life-span: 5.4%

- Exploration of the universe: 4.7%

- An end to fossil fuels: 45.6%

- None/Not sure: 5.6%

Results13_clip_image002_3

Read more here.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Building Future Nanodevices

From New Scientist:

Dn88531_595
A map of the Americas measuring just a few hundred nanometres across has been created out of meticulously folded strands of DNA, using a new technique for manipulating molecules dubbed "DNA origami".

The nanoscale map, which sketches out both North and South America at a staggering 200-trillionths of their actual size, aims to demonstrate the precision and complexity with which DNA can be manipulated using the approach.

According to the map's creator, Paul Rothemund at Caltech in Pasadena, US, DNA origami could prove hugely important for building future nano-devices including molecular machines and quantum computer components. . .

William Shih at the Biomolecular Nanotechnology Group at Harvard Medical School in Boston, US, says this offers the most flexible method yet for building nanoscale structures. Shih is experimenting with the technique as a means of making molecular 3D cages, which could be used to build molecular motors.


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Nanotecnología Responsable

While in Spain last week to speak with university students about ethical use of advanced nanotechnology, I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Euroresidentes, one of Europe's most successful web portals.

That interview has been posted online in Spanish and now also in English (coming soon in French, German, and Portuguese too).

Here's how our Spanish friends introduce the interview on their English language blog:

A large section of Euroresidentes is dedicated to Technological Advances and, more specifically, to Nanotechnology. Our site on Nanotecnología is the Spanish-speaking world's largest nanotechnology information site and is visited by hundreds of thousands each month. We also send out a weekly news bulletin to almost 1000 subscribers in Spain and Latin America.

We started collaborating with the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology in the US in 2004, and created a Spanish and Portuguese version of some of the material on CRN website. Last week Mike Treder, CRN's Executive Director, visited the Euroresidentes offices in Alicante and while he was here he agreed to answer some of our questions. We have published the interview in Spanish in the Nanotecnología section. But because his answers were so interesting, and the original interview was in English, we thought the theme should interest our English-speaking users too.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Hacking Nanotechnology

The Future and You, episode of March 11, 2006:

Hacking nanotechnology: or the future of "NanoWarez." When the world's hackers shift their focus from turning your computer against you to turning your nanotech devices and implants against you... Who you gonna call? Mike Treder, Executive Director of CRN: The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology.

That's how Stephen Euin Cobb, host of The Future and You podcast, is promoting the latest installment of an interview I did for him. Also on the current episode are David Brin, Spider Robinson, Nancy Kress and Joe Haldeman, among others. Listen and enjoy.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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March 14, 2006

"Must-See Movie" Improved!!

One of the most popular short films on the Internet is Productive Nanosystems: from Molecules to Superproducts. The four-minute computer animation goes inside a personal nanofactory and demonstrates key steps in a process to convert simple molecules into a billion-CPU laptop computer.

Nanotool

Now, that "must-see" movie, produced by engineer John Burch and nanotechnologist K. Eric Drexler, has been updated with improved visuals, mood music, and subtle sound effects.

Please note that the movie file is 47 MB (small format) or 75 MB (large format). It might take a while to download, but it's definitely worth it.

UPDATE: The new version of the nanofactory movie is also available from Google in streaming video. On my computer, the quality was lower than doing a full download, but if you don't want to wait, this is a good option. (Hat tip to Dino Fancellu)

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Setting Technology Priorities

QUESTION: Which of the following would you most like to see accomplished through the development of emerging technologies?

1) An end to world hunger

2) An end to disease

3) Extended life-span

4) Exploration of the universe

5) An end to fossil fuels

6) None/Not sure

What would your answer be?

Tomorrow, we'll reveal the results of a poll given to more than 13,000 US citizens asking this question.

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