This changes everything: NOT
In thinking, writing, and talking about the impact of transformative future technologies -- such as molecular manufacturing -- there is a strong temptation to sum it up as, "This changes everything."
You'll frequently hear that statement, but the problem is that it is not very descriptive and it's also very likely not true.
For instance, will advanced generation nanotechnology change human nature? Maybe, but maybe not. And if so, how much and in what ways?
At CRN, we prefer to focus on specifics, wherever possible. Admittedly, this is not easy, and our forecasts obviously are subject to inaccuracy. But we believe there is more to learn by isolating certain areas, such as the predicted capabilities of products made by molecular manufacturing, or the projected development path of those technologies.
Rather than falling back on the standard "everything changes" line, we recommend systematic studies, and in particular we suggest an inquiry into the effects of future technologies in three areas of human endeavor and interaction: energy, conflict, and health.
ENERGY: How are we going to…* Meet
* Balance
* Sustain
* Survive…the world's energy needs?
CONFLICT: How are we going to…* Manage
* Reduce
* Survive…violent inter-societal conflict in the age of advanced technologies?
HEALTH: How are we going to…* Prioritize
* Apportion
* Regulate…the potential of future medicine to extend and transform human life?
Does CRN have answers to all these questions yet? Of course not. It is still too early, unfortunately, to have a good understanding of how, when, and where the technology for exponential general-purpose manufacturing will be developed, how the technology will be disseminated, and what effects it will have on human society. But by narrowing investigation and discussion to certain areas, we believe we can learn more and have a better chance of managing a successful transition into the nano era.
Tags: nanotechnology nanotech nano science technology ethics weblog blog
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