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« Assessing Levels of Risk | Main | Disruptive Abundance »

Nanofactories: Coming Soon?

In a new article at Science Online, a service of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Anna Salleh writes:

Within 15 years, desktop nanofactories could pump out anything from a new car to a novel nanoweapon, says a technology commentator.

And he warns that society needs to start preparing for this brave new world.

Mike Treder from the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) in New York says advanced nanotechnology, like these nanofactories, could help solve world poverty but it could also wreak economic and social chaos.

"It's the biggest challenge we've ever faced as a species," says Treder, who has been addressing scientists in Australia this week.

I spent several hours in Sydney speaking with Ms. Salleh, a journalist who really cares about and wants to understand the subjects of her articles.

While molecular manufacturing is not yet a reality, Treder says researchers are already working on building molecular-scale machines that could eventually move atoms around to make products.

And he says that in less than 15 years, nanoscale factories could be making consumer products from cups and chairs to cars and house bricks.

Raw materials like carbon would be pumped into the nanofactory, where atoms would be rearranged to make products according to programs downloaded from the Internet, says Treder.

At the end of Salleh's piece, she quotes a few nanotech researchers who offer skepticism about CRN's timeline, but significantly do not discount either the probability nor the potential impact of desktop nanofactory technology. It remains to be seen whether this development will take 15 years, 30 years, or much longer (not likely), but it's a positive sign that our concerns about the disruptive impacts of molecular manufacturing are being taken so seriously.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Do any nanotechnologists actually support your 15 year timeline?

Hal, from what I have seen CRN's 15 year timeline is predicated on the assumption that the whole world, or at least the United States, will drop whatever other research is going on in other fields and focus exclusively on MNT. If you take it that the ultimate goal of a nanofactory is possible, then under those circumstance a 15 year timeline does make some sort of sense, I guess. But, seeing how such a turn around of the scientific establishment is impossible at present; I don't think that timeline is realistic. Politics, as they say, is the art of the possible after all.

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