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« July 2006 | Main | September 2006 »

Unintelligent Molecules

I (Chris) got an email today from someone who had read my Nanofactory paper and asked: How can molecules be intelligent?

I assume they meant: How can molecules be active and make engineered stuff?

The answer is that molecules can be active the same way a robot or other factory equipment is active: a computer can drive them. In a modern factory, much of the machinery moves under automated control. But that does not mean intelligence is moving it.

When molecular manufacturing develops to the point that it can build machine components by joining together molecular fragments, it will be able to build computers. A nanofactory will have vast numbers of computers, all working together. Those computers will drive the robotics of the factory to make exactly what the blueprints call for. The blueprints will be fed in from outside, just as files are sent from one computer to another today.

The idea of a molecular machine making stuff might seem spooky, but it is no more weird than an industrial robot arm. There is no "special sauce" needed to make a nanofactory work. It's just a lot of mechanical engineering, and a small amount of reasonably creative chemical engineering, and a lot of fairly straightforward computer programming. We are not proposing to build life, or even intelligence--just to build new types of machines.

Chris Phoenix

CRN Home Page
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Conference Deadline Looms

We've mentioned before that readers of our Responsible Nanotechnology blog can attend the upcoming Nanotechnology 2006 conference at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, NY, for FREE.

Registration for the September 25-26 event normally would be $150. However, if you contact us by SEPTEMBER 10, we can register you at no cost. Please note that you cannot directly register on the conference web site to receive this offer -- you must go through us.

Chris Phoenix

CRN Home Page
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Regulating Disruption

I was asked to provide an answer to a new question in the "Brain Parade" series posted at the Meme Therapy blog. Here is the question, and my answer follows:

Do you think the global economy and already existing regulatory structures will be able to adapt to the impact of nanotechnology without large-scale negative disruptions?
Probably not, or at least not without far greater anticipation and preparation than we’re seeing today. It’s not clear yet whether new administrative or regulatory structures will be needed, but in any case the existing structures will need to be highly flexible and forward-thinking if severe disruptions are to be avoided.

It’s not hyperbole to say that molecular manufacturing (which is part of nanotechnology’s fourth generation of development, due in 10 years or so) represents the next Industrial Revolution. We’re talking about a manufacturing technology that could turn out low-cost, highly advanced products from a desktop appliance: a personal nanofactory. And one product of that nanofactory could be another nanofactory, and another and another.

We'll have the possibility for exponential proliferation of the manufacturing capacity. Think about all the transformative change of earlier tech-based revolutions — from steam power, electricity, the automobile, plastics, and computers — packed into the span of just a few years. It’s that rapidly accelerating pace of change that makes nanotechnology potentially so disruptive.

Patrick Lin, a member of the CRN Global Task Force, also gave an answer, which included this point:

Now, some people believe that when nanotechnology advances, molecular manufacturing techniques will enable us to create virtually anything we want: we just need to program these little black boxes with the right blueprints, and they will crank out the desired product, one molecule at a time. If this happens, then there may be severe disruptions on many levels. The Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) is the only organization looking into this, as far as I know.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Limits of the World

Not Necessarily Relevant Quote of the Week:

Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world.
— Arthur Schopenhauer

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CRN Goes to MIT

Now in its 6th year, Technology Review's Emerging Technologies Conference at MIT features a mixture of keynote speakers, insightful panels and breakout sessions. The two-day program -- September 27-28 -- will bring together world-renowned innovators and business leaders to discuss emerging technologies.

I'm currently planning to "live blog" this conference, similar to the well-received coverage we provided from Stanford's Singularity Summit. Among the many speakers of special interest to us are:

Jeffrey P. Bezos
Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Amazon.com

Vicki Colvin
Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Rice University

Barbara Karn
US Environmental Protection Agency

Jonathan F. Miller
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, AOL

Sebastian Thrun
Director, Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Stanford University

If you also attend the conference, look me up and say Hi!

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Maintaining Equilibrium

David Howell, a former British Cabinet minister and former chairman of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, has written a penetrating opinion piece for the Japan Times (hat tip to Rocky Rawstern).

To the dismay of the Israeli public, and the surprise of a large flock of defense experts accustomed to high-speed Israeli victories over weak Arab neighbors, the Hezbollah guerrillas continued raining down rockets on Israeli towns for weeks. Worse still, armed with their ultra modern, armor-piercing and laser-directed missiles, they were able to knock out Israel's invincible tanks and then to melt into the hills and villages of southern Lebanon. They proved to be an elusive enemy that all the bombs and reconnaissance from the air could never somehow pin down. . .

As one weary Israeli soldier observed, this was an enemy that seemed to combine all the advantages and flexibility of an irregular underground fighting force, operating in its own familiar territory, with the technology and firepower of a modern and fully equipped army. . .

[T]he miniaturization of weapons, along with the miniaturization of everything from mobile phones to computers, has enabled the modern guerrilla not only to harass regular forces, as he (or she) always could do, but to match their firepower and to destroy them. All that is now needed for a group to acquire the firepower, and therefore the power, to match a full-size, fully trained army is a few months of preparation, time to build up stocks of weaponry, a degree of training in handling the new technology and, of course, plenty of cash to hand to the willing sellers of such arms who populate the world's armament bazaars. . .

When they see what is happening in Lebanon, Western policymakers may at last begin to grasp what should have been obvious from the onset of the information and electronic revolution over 20 years ago -- namely and simply that the microchip disperses power into more and more hands (good and bad) and smaller and smaller groups, and that where the microchip leaves off, nanotechnology -- packing power into invisibly small entities and sources -- will take over. Sheer weight of arms no longer translates into power and influence. Big fleets of carriers, squadrons of tanks, armadas of aircraft and strike fighters with devastating rocket power are no longer the key to domination or the insignia of over-arching authority.

Small remains beautiful but small has also become lethal. Those who would seek to establish a new political and social architecture, and a new equilibrium in the unstable and dangerous Middle East, will from now on have to live with that fact.

To this we would add that those who seek to maintain equilibrium within the global political and social architecture must come to grips with the destabilizing and potentially disruptive impacts of tomorow's nanofactory technology.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Kurzweil on "The Daily Show"

Earlier today we mentioned that the Burch/Drexler nanofactory video had made it into pop culture with a posting at YouTube. Well, tonight, more evidence that nanotechnology may finally be "ready for prime time," as inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil makes an appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart.

Kurzweil, who is a member of the CRN Global Task Force, spoke about medical nanobots and the future merging of man and machine. Of course, the segment was played for laughs and Ray was a good sport. Tonight's program will be shown again on the Comedy Central cable channel (in the US) at 1 am EST, and several more times tomorrow, including at 8 pm EST.

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The Jetsons & the Nanofactory

George

It seems that Productive Nanosystems, the computer-animated video about nanofactory technology made by John Burch and Eric Drexler, has moved from the leading edge of futurist thinking -- originally posted at the Nanorex site -- into the mainstream -- posted at Google Videos -- and now has gone all the way into pop culture, with a posting on YouTube!

Youtube

Yes, I know, that intro that's been tacked on (by someone called Duane Kuss) is pretty cheesy, but still, it's good to see these ideas reaching a wider audience.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Are you a Cosmopolitan?

I am a citizen of the world.
-- Diogenes (4th century BCE)

There are many meanings of the word cosmopolitan. In a philosophical sense, it can refer to the concept of a world citizen (from the Greek, kosmos + politês). The school of thought that supports this idea is sometimes called cosmopolitanism.

From Stanford University's indispensable online Encyclopedia of Philosophy, we learn:

In the eighteenth century, the terms ‘cosmopolitanism’ and ‘world citizenship’ were often used not as labels for determinate philosophical theories, but rather to indicate an attitude of open-mindedness and impartiality. A cosmopolitan was someone who was not subservient to a particular religious or political authority, someone who was not biased by particular loyalties or cultural prejudice.

So, a cosmopolitan can simply be a person who is open-minded, or, more specifically, one who ascribes to a particular geopolitical viewpoint. For example, in the Enlightenment period:

Grotius envisioned a “great society of states” that is bound by a “law of nations” that holds “between all states”.

And taking the idea even further:

The most radical of eighteenth-century political cosmopolitans was no doubt Anarcharsis Cloots (Jean-Baptiste du Val-de-Grace, baron de Cloots, 1755-1794). Cloots advocated the abolition of all existing states and the establishment of a single world state under which all human individuals would be directly subsumed. His arguments drew first of all on the general structure of social contract theory. If it is in the general interest for everyone to submit to the authority of a state that enforces laws that provide security, then this argument applies world-wide and justifies the establishment of a world-wide “republic of united individuals,” not a plurality of states that find themselves in the state of nature vis-à-vis each other. Second, he argues that sovereignty should reside with the people, and that the concept of sovereignty itself, because it involves indivisibility, implies that there can be but one sovereign body in the world, namely, the human race as a whole.

However:

Most other political cosmopolitans did not go as far as Cloots. Immanuel Kant, most famously, advocated a much weaker form of international legal order, namely, that of a ‘league of nations.’ In Perpetual Peace (1795) Kant argues that true and world-wide peace is possible only when states are organized internally according to ‘republican’ principles, when they are organized externally in a voluntary league for the sake of keeping peace, and when they respect the human rights not only of their citizens but also of foreigners. He argues that the league of states should not have coercive military powers because that would violate the internal sovereignty of states, constitute a potential danger to individual freedoms already established within those states (if the federal authority were less respectful of human rights than some of the member states) and reduce the chances that states would actually join.

This "league of states" idea finally was attempted in the early 20th century, first with the League of Nations and then with the United Nations, although in both cases, "essential features of Kant's plan were not implemented, such as the abolition of standing armies."

During the latter half of the 20th century, versions of "economic cosmopolitanism" seemed to gain precedent over political forms, particularly, the "free trade" advocated by eighteenth-century anti-mercantilists like Adam Smith and Dietrich Hermann Hegewisch.

They sought to diminish the role of politics in the economic realm. Their ideal was a world in which tariffs and other restrictions on foreign trade are abolished, a world in which the market, not the government, takes care of the needs of the people. Against mercantilism, they argue that it is more advantageous for everyone involved if a nation imports those goods which are more expensive to produce domestically, and that the assumption that one's own state will profit if other states are unable to export their goods is false. They argue that the situation is quite the contrary: the abolition of protectionism would benefit everyone, because other states would gain from their exports, reach a higher standard of living and then become even better trading partners, because they could then import more, too.

On their view, after trade will have been liberalized world-wide, the importance of national governments will diminish dramatically. As national governments currently focus on the national economy and defense, their future role will be at most auxiliary. In the ideal global market, war is in no one's interest. The freer the global market becomes, the more the role of the states will become negligible.

This is an interesting prediction. Has it come to pass? We can observe that globalized trade has indeed reduced both the incident and the severity of war; it is not clear, however, that the importance of national governments has diminished dramatically. On one hand, the US, Chinese, Indian, and Japanese governments are more important than ever. On the other hand, it could be argued that in Europe, the opening of trade barriers via the EU is inaugurating a period in which "the role of the states will become negligible." We shall see.

Along these same lines, Kwame Anthony Appiah has written a new book titled Cosmopolitanism: Ethics in a World of Strangers, that reviews the historical background of this philosophy and considers its practical application in today's political and social climate. I've read the book and, frankly, I would not give it a hearty recommendation. The subject matter is important, but I found the writing style tedious and pedantic. However, I'm glad to see these issues being raised and discussed.

The wild card in all of this, as usual, is the potentially disruptive impact of exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing. Whether it will foster cosmopolitanism or not is uncertain. It could be a great boon to humanity, but it also could lead to a decline in interdependence between nations and make warfare again much more likely.

Mike Treder

CRN Home Page
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Forbes on Robots

C3po

According to Forbes, The Robots Are Coming!

The robots are on the move -- leaping, scrambling, rolling, flying, climbing. They are figuring out how to get here on their own. They come to help us, protect us, amuse us -- and some even do floors.

If you've been keeping up with progress in robotics, the article doesn't really offer much that's new. But there are a couple of interesting slideshow features on "25 Great Moments In Robotics History" and "Seven Amazing Robots That Will Change Your Life."

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