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« Biotech vs. Nanotech | Main | Mapping the Techno Future »

August 25, 2005

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cdnprodigy

In a perfect world there will need to be *two* power transfers to two very different administrative groups.

Initial MM researchers need to transfer power to a body that would seem to have military characteristics for the sole purpose of depopulating other MM/AGI programs. It might help to minimize civilian casualties if existing militaries administer this step on their own soils.

After a few weeks, power will need to be tranferred to the long-term MM patent "gate-keepers". Goals here are to not allow dangerous product technologies, use MM to neurotech safer administrators, distribute humanitarian supplies and effect whatever Human Rights charter you care to enforce.

Use the patent people for the "disarm" step, and governments will panic and many civilians will die. Military intelligence holding reigns too long leads to tyranny. Figuring out the size of these groups is the first step in planning how to screen out spies.

Phillip Huggan

Precautionarily, I'll post some incomplete, rambling scribblings.

If a single Nanhattan commences, an intractable arms-race is highly likely. The structure a Nanhattan would take ensures embedded spies would immediately propogate multiple global Nanhattans and probably espionage trade secrets to the point of proto-assembler completion. The lead time of weeks/months of build time to safely and humanely adminster the "disarm" step may not be achieved. For this reason, an arms-race arms reduction contingency MUST be found. SALTs, STARTs, and other historic analogies appear to be irrelevant; new paradigms are needed. My best guess is two powers would have to expose or disclose eachothers entire MM industrial capitals, and all products except a doomsday, for MM arms reduction to take place. The time from the trailing (2nd place) entity's proto-assembler construction to a doomsday device construction that is incapable of confidently being deactivated by another MM force that has weeks/months lead time, is the danger period when an arms race may escalate out-of-control. If doomsday device is harder than disarm step, last few sentences are irrelevant. If doomsday is really easy, might be the safest scenario if multiple competing, close MM players.

It may become apparent that Nanhattans are in progress using resources which dwarve private efforts and private chances at 1st reaching a responsible "disarm". Such hypothetical Nanhattans should have been graded beforehand and private resources should be pooled with whatever suspected Nahattan seems likely to yield the lowest total of civilian casualties in the future.

If military generals or other personnel who have a natural tendency to tyranny are employed for the disarm step, tools and weapons which self-destruct after a few weeks may help to diminish concerns of a longterm Orwellian scenario.

Ways of safeguarding a responsible (300 persons minimum) longterm MM effort from espionage must be found, which don't utilize MM technology. Otherwise, same arms-race concerns fate as Nanhattans.

Patent phase will need many laywers and education philosophers to implement a Human Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Damn lawyers will still be around for a while...

Phillip Huggan

...Disarm step needs less to be thought of as taking over the world, and more to be thought of as merely laying a new temporary global infrastructure of sensors and cameras to be removed as soon as a given environment has been rendered inert from MM/AGI components and all exit/entry points are monitored. This implementation step needs to be uncoupled from the military/police administered strategies that will be used if a viable research program is found.

Laying down a grid of sensors and cameras (not EMPs which won't affect hardened locations AFAIK) is a public safety concern, and should be treated and administered as by existing agencies responsible for disaster planning or infrastructure construction. Every member nation of the initial disarm step that disarms its own soil, should be treated as an equal on whatever MM industry capital administrative body exists. Citizens of all disarmed nations should receive "menus" with which to select whatever consumables and consumer goods desired, MM renders easily available.

Hopefully the global disarm step will only take weeks, and not trigger any WMD detonations by unco-operative nations. Order of nations to disarm should be established based on a number of facotrs: whether is a member of Disarm Treaty, capabilities and competence of civilian disaster planning agencies or infrastructure personnel, capabilities of military staff, presence of WMD in non-member nations, size of country, conventional infrastructure mass of country (search-space), freedoms enjoyed by citizens (for goods distribution).

The dangers of Disarming are strongly correlated to the hostility of the geo-politcal climate when MM is achieved. Unfortunately, 2020-ish will be a "hot" period. I agree, don't negotiate with the military-industrial-complexes directly. Focus on the more amiable civilian public safety bodies (use police to halt MM/AGI programs, use military to enforce missile defence blockades around uncooperative nations and to disarm them by military campaign if necessary). But to completely cut off existing or future government bodies is to invite war, pre-MM and post-MM.

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