Your "To Do List"

There are numerous options for administering molecular manufacturing. Which ones might work as planned, and how desirable are they? Which classes of problem are suitable for the various options? What are the consequences if an option is tried and fails? Which options can coexist in one society, or even in one (shrinking) world?

Of the thirty essential studies recommended by CRN, study #29 -- "What policies toward administration of molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?" -- is the most comprehensive. This is in part because it deals with a very big central question, and also because there are so many variables. Intelligent answers will not be found without intensive analysis.

(Note: This study assumes the existence of a general-purpose molecular manufacturing system; preliminary answers are based on diamondoid nanofactory technology.)

Because study #29 covers such a big topic, we have conducted our review of it over a full week, concluding today with a "Post-Molecular-Manufacturing To Do List":

After molecular manufacturing is developed, the job is just beginning. This list should be expanded in consultation with various future studies groups and think tanks.

Subquestion A: Active shield? (Global sensor grid to detect, and possibly respond to, nanorobot activity)

Preliminary answer: If the administration fails to prevent the development of small undesirable nanorobots, it may be very important to have a system in place to rapidly detect their activity. For example, Robert Freitas has calculated that a well-dispersed airborne self-replicator of advanced design might produce sufficient copies to block all sunlight in as little as two days. If this development is possible, it obviously must be prevented with multiple levels of safeguards. Research must be done well ahead of time to determine whether such a thing may become possible; unless it can be conclusively ruled out (better than billion-to-one certainty), then deploying an early-warning sensor net and pre-positioning countermeasures would seem to be a minimal precaution.

Subquestion B: Artificial intelligence?

Preliminary answer: Computers will be one of the easiest things to build with molecular manufacturing. A sudden increase in available computer power by many orders of magnitude will surely make various forms of artificial intelligence more powerful, and enable new forms that are not practical with current hardware. Even if runaway AI doesn't introduce inherent danger, misused AI could be extremely powerful. Conversely, AI of various sorts -- even something as straightforward as advanced data-mining -- could solve several problems that currently have us stumped. It may be worth pre-planning to launch an AI research program as soon as the computer power becomes available.

Subquestion C: Space program?

Preliminary answer: Access to space will become cheaper by at least several orders of magnitude. This should be planned for. Space may be useful for resources, for quarantine, and for science.

Provisional conclusion: Many options need to be considered and synthesized. Hastily chosen or simplistic policy is extremely unlikely to be wise or effective. [Note: This conclusion applies to the entirety of study #29, not just the section considered today.

Our initial basic findings (preliminary answers and provisional conclusions) for all thirty studies should be verified as rapidly as possible. Because our understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting these studies is strongly preferred.

Tomorrow we will conclude this overview of CRN's thirty essential studies.

We are actively seeking researchers who have an interest in performing or assisting with this work. Please contact Research Director Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on the proposed studies.

Comments

[todd]

Well the " to do lists " is they interesting subject and in the covers a great deal of ground one could speculate upon receiving the molecular assembler what one went to in the first few days the construction of new cars, trucks, houses, recreational vehicles and so forth one thing to know it is the availability of designs for useful products I feel strongly based on the past that design availability will be large in deed. In the past when hardware became available software soon followed good examples are the myriad of small software programs available in the '80s for use in DOS applications and routines for word processing and spreadsheet applications I must've have seen thousands of small routines written for specific tasks and problems for the PCs of the time when "the wish box" becomes available given a few month delay in accessibility to everyone they should provide ample time for many designs of useful products to be available for download one interesting point is the possibility of a "copy" button to be present in he modular assembler. That is if you wish a copy of your toothbrush simply place your toothbrush in the assembler, press the copy button a moment later take your toothbrush out, press the print button and you'll have a second toothbrush. If this feature is available in the first generation molecular assembler's and as noted in the past the molecular assembler can be scaled to size that is if you received a small 2' by 2' assembler you'll be able to replicate a copy of the assembler to say a 3' by 3' foot version with a steady increase in size per generation assembler is large enough to manufacture and or copy automobiles with a two-hour replication time will be available if you received the assembler in the morning by late afternoon. A garage size assembler perhaps 20' by 20' and a rich friends Cadillac well one can see the progression even given the likelihood of restrictions in manufacture i.e. one cannot replicate oil, transmission fluid, brake fluid, and perhaps water. It would take only a few hours to prepare a vehicle prior to the copy command for the vehicle to be ready to be copy then fluids can be added to the new copy as needed and a diamond version of the Cadillac is available. It should be noted that once a copy file has been created this file can be downloaded to the Internet although the file may be quite substantial in size given the advances in Internet access speed and performance one could envision the file could be downloaded easily also one can also see a scenario where multiple garages size assembler is operating at the same time could produce a very large number of vehicles in a very short period of time as I'm sure you can all imagine.

In passing I do recall a few comments made early on in the software writing that occurred one of these comments was a fundamental believe that all software should be free of cost one should pay for hardware but software should be freely distributed come on all users and indeed in the beginning this was the case and many many files where traded amongst programmers of the '70s early '80s. We are immediately confronted with the copyright laws when one wishes to copy said Cadillac and we're left with a dilemma as to how to proceed on the one hand given the safety increases in design if the decision came to a vote I would vote for a well-designed safe vehicle to be available for download for free after all if said vehicle was available to everyone on the road we could probably save 50,000 plus lives a year ended my opinion these lives outweigh the needs of a few companies producing automobiles today.

Continuing with the discussion on copyright laws I do not believe for a moment that any administration restricting the availability of useful products for download will be able to be maintained in my opinion the only individuals that are being restricted in such a scenario on a very poor as they do not have the capital i.e. money to pay for the files that would be needed to construct said vehicle is also my opinion that this is morally wrong to restrict an individual purely because he cannot afford to purchase a copy of the vehicle software. It is and has always been my position, to stand against the
market economy and will be very happy to see it fail and fall to the wayside post molecular assembler.