International Development May Be Safer

In a post last week, we stated that a concerted early development project for molecular manufacturing is probably a good idea for a variety of reasons. But this idea alone is not sufficient, in our view. To be most effective, the early development program should be an international effort, or at least a joint product of many leading nations.

It appears that the development of molecular nanotechnology manufacturing systems is inevitable. They are too useful; they will keep getting easier to develop; and even their dangerous qualities may be attractive to several kinds of groups. The question, then, is not whether to develop them, but how: on what schedule, and with what project architecture?

On our main website, we have a full page devoted to the design of a development project(s). Is it best to have one project, or a few, or many? Is there a reason to prefer an international project over a national or corporate project? CRN's preliminary conclusion is that a single international project is best. It allows the most control, and also directly reduces some of the risks.

Without some controls, advanced nanotechnology will probably be extremely dangerous--but desirable to many people. In addition, manufacturing systems will probably be portable and easy to duplicate. This means that it will be quite hard to control the use of the technology if unrestricted versions ever become widely available. On the other hand, overly restrictive policy will encourage uncontrolled release. It seems that an early, closely guarded, international development program is the approach that retains the most control in the long run.

CRN will continue working to clarify this issue and make specific recommendations.

Comments

[Tom Jensen]

Are there any issues in terms of using raw materials derived from non-virgin feedstock in making nano materials (as long as the material is of good quality)?

Also, to what extent would incorporating nano materials (e.g., for anti-scratch in windshield glass, nano tubes in building materials (such as wallboard) complicate recycling?

Thanks

Tom

[Mr. Farlops]

The idealist in me advocates international cooperation in nanotechnology development, and we'll probably see some cooperation given that science has always been an international endeavor, but the realist in me thinks that, in the ways that actually matter, international collaboration won't happen.

Once the United States is commited to building proto-assemblers, it is certain that most military applications will be kept deeply secret.

Also, looking at the history of technical development in the United States, there was always a period where the government would look the other way while monopoly formed in the private sector. It is unlikely that this trend will change.

Examples of this would be railroad development, the petroleum industry, steel, telephones, broadcast media, pharmaceuticals, the cable industry, mobile phones, and so on. In each case, the government would allow monopolies in the private sector to form and then only step in to reign them in or break them up after a technology or market was mature. This is because monopoly, despite its evils, tends to lead to rapid development. If Apple, Intel, Motorola, IBM and Microsoft were on even footing, would personal computers have spread so rapidly in the United States? Would de facto standards have spread so rapidly? Only now that the personal computer market is mature, has the government finally stepped in to restrain Microsoft.

This leads me to think that the same will happen in MNT. Perhaps Zyvex, Monsanto, GlaxoSmithKline or IBM will be the big bully in the MNT market they everyone will be complaining about in twenty years.

Additionally, I don't think we are going to avoid proliferation issues. If proliferation with difficult and expensive technologies like nuclear weapons is already a problem (I have just read rumors that Pakistan may have shared nuclear secrets with Nigeria.), then MNT will be at least as slippery and difficult to control on an international level. Terrorism and military use looks likely and unavoidable.

Having said all this, it's absolutely necessary to tell Foresight, CRN and other MNT advocacy groups to push just as hard for defensive MNT along with proto-assemblers. Defensive technologies should be as cheap and open as we can make them so that they spread more rapidly that the offensive applications. Sort of like how immuneware like firewalls, network security tools and computer virus scanners are offered for free and are often open source.

It is true that a big push into defensive technology may synergize with offensive technology research, but it will reduce the threat posed by proliferation. Offensive often tends to be cheaper than defense, this is why ballistic missile defense has only made sense in very limited applications. But we have to try. If we are going to push for proto-assemblers, we definitely have to make certain that defensive technology matures soon afterwards.

[Henadzi]

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